In Week 8 the Washington Commanders travel to Indianapolis to play the Colts in what could be an important game for the Colts. Let’s dive into our Commanders – Colts prediction. Be sure to visit our OddsShopper tool for more NFL bets.
The Colts are currently in second place in the AFC South. They trail the Tennessee Titans by half a game in the standings. The Commanders find themselves in last place in the NFC East, however, they are on a two-game winning streak and hoping to make it three to reach .500 on the season.
Commanders-Colts Prediction And Picks
The Colts Try to Move Closer To The Titans
While the Colts try to move closer to the Titans in the standings, they will have to overcome a putrid offense. Right now, the Colts are ranked 30th in Pass DVOA and 32nd in Rush DVOA. On the plus side, the Colts are 16th in Average Yards Per Game at 341.6 yards per game. On the negative side, the Colts average just 5.0 yards per play, which is 27th in the league.
The Colts have the second-highest pass-play percentage in the league at 66.4%. Matt Ryan is averaging 6.8 yards per attempt — 23rd among qualified quarterbacks in the league. Michael Pittman Jr. leads the way in targets with a 21.5% target share. Parris Campbell (13.4%), Alec Pierce (11.7%), and Nyheem Hines (9.2%) are the next three receivers on the team in target share.
Indianapolis has struggled the run the ball effectively this year. Jonathan Taylor is averaging just 4.2 yards per carry, while the entire team is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. They have just two rushing plays over 20 yards and have scored just two rushing touchdowns the entire season.
Defensively, the Colts are good against the run with the eighth-best Rush DVOA and are average against the pass with the 16th-best Pass DVOA. They allow the eighth fewest yards per game at 313.7 and allow just 5.1 yards per play, which is tied for seventh-best in the league.
Commanders Looking to Extend Winning Streak
The Commanders have momentum coming into the game with a two-game winning streak and look to upset the Colts on the road to make it three games.
Offensively, the Commanders are a lot like the Colts in that they have the 29th best Pass DVOA and 29th best Rush DVOA. They average 326.6 yards per game, which is 24th best, along with 4.9 yards per play, which is 30th best. In other words, this is not a good offense either.
Washington is 11th in pass play percentage at 61.5%. Carson Wentz was completing 62.1% of his passes but was averaging just 6.4 yards per attempt. Taylor Heinicke is now starting for the Commanders with Wentz on the injured reserve with a broken finger. Heinicke in one game completed 60.6% of his pass attempts and averaging 6.1 yards per attempt — worse than Wentz.
Curtis Samuel leads the team with a 22.4% target share, but Terry McClaurin leads the team in receiving yards as he averages 62.9 receiving yards per game. Both Samuel and McClaurin each have two receiving touchdowns.
Brian Robinson Jr. has taken over the backfield, leading the team in rushing attempts in the last two games with 37 combined rushing attempts. He is averaging just 3.4 rushing yards per attempt and the team is averaging just 4.1 yards per rushing attempt.
Defensively, Washington is 29th in Pass DVOA and 4th in Rush DVOA. This is a defense that opponents want to pass against but not run the ball against. They allow 335.9 yards per game to their opponent which is good for 13th in the league. Let’s look at our final Commanders – Colts prediction.
Commanders – Colts Prediction
This has the makings of a low-scoring game, hence the 39.5 total on this game at the moment. These teams are mirror images of each other. Both teams are at the bottom of the league offensively. Both teams are very good against the run and have issues defensively against the pass. This could very well be a low-scoring game where one debates whether the game is a good defense or bad offense being played.
This game will come down to turnovers most likely and could very well be decided by whoever gets the ball last.
Going to OddsShopper and looking at the game lines, the current lines are right on point. The best bets you can find according to the “Sharp Sportsbook Lines” are Colts -2.5, and Colts First Half Moneyline (-140).
If looking for prop bets in this game, the best ones according to the Stokastic Projections are Nyheim Hines OVER 6.5 Rushing Yards, Antonio Gibson UNDER 16.5 Receiving Yards, Terry McClaurin UNDER 4.5 Receptions, and Terry McClaurin UNDER 60.5 Receiving Yards.
Best Commanders vs. Colts Bets: Colts -2.5 (-115), DraftKings; Colts First Half Moneyline (-140), Caesars.
