When the Denver Broncos traded for Russell Wilson this offseason, few would have expected them to enter their Week 8 matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars at 2-5. But that’s exactly where they find themselves ahead of the battle in London. A look at the NFL odds reveals that the Jaguars are actually favored over the Broncos. Bettors should head to FanDuel Sportsbook to tail these Broncos-Jaguars prediction and picks — or check out our OddShopper tool to find other sharp bets.
NFL Odds: Broncos-Jaguars Odds
Broncos Can't Score in the Red Zone
The Broncos are a neverending source of content. This week, Russell Wilson told reporters that he got a full four-hour workout on the plane ride to London, which must have looked as absurd as it sounds. Wilson had missed Denver's Week 7 game against the Jets, in which backup Brett Rypien couldn't do enough to carry the Broncos to a victory. The Broncos scored just seven points. They now rank last in points per game (14.3).
Still, the Broncos are not as terrible as their record suggests. Denver ranks 22nd in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and slots in right around the league average in expected points added (EPA) per play. Both rankings stem from strong defensive play and would be much better if the offense could score - Denver ranks last in points per offensive play (0.223).
Denver's offense hasn't been terrible at generating yardage. The Broncos rank 23rd in yards per play (5.1), 22nd in yards per rush attempt (4.2) and 18th in yards per pass attempt (6.8). The Broncos have managed to get the ball in the red zone on occasion, but they have scored a touchdown on only 23.5% of those trips. The median team has scored a touchdown on 54.5% of its red-zone trips. Wilson has attempted 31 red-zone passes, which ranks 14th, but has thrown only one red-zone touchdown, which ranks 34th.
Denver's defense has done its best to carry the impotent offense. The unit ranks third in defensive DVOA and first in yards allowed per play (4.5). The rushing defense ranks a lowly 23rd in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.7), but the passing defense has clamped down to allow an NFL-low in yards per pass attempt (4.8). The credit for that belongs to lockdown boundary cornerback Patrick Surtain II and a solid pass rush, which ranks fifth in pressure percentage (26.3%).
Jaguars Should Be Better than 2-5
The Jaguars also enter this London contest at 2-5. While few had lofty expectations for this Jaguars team, the advanced metrics suggest they're better than their record. They rank ninth in DVOA and slot in well above average in EPA per play. But unlike the Broncos, the Jaguars can score. They rank 16th in points per game (22.1) and 15th in points per play (0.347). Unfortunately, all five of their possessions have come by a single possession.
Jacksonville's offense has been improving. The unit ranks an encouraging 10th in yards per play (5.8). Second-year running back Travis Etienne Jr. has looked electric and now ranks 19th in total scrimmage yards. He's in for an even larger role with James Robinson traded to the Jets. Second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence has completed 63% of his passes, which ranks 23rd among the 35 quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts, for 6.39 net yards per attempt (NY/A), which ranks 13th, eight spots ahead of Wilson. That said, Lawrence has completed only 30% of his throws under pressure, which ranks 29th.
Jacksonville's defense hasn't looked unbeatable, but it has looked solid. The Jaguars rank 18th in defensive DVOA and 13th in yards allowed per play (5.4). The rushing defense has been fantastic -- Jacksonville ranks fifth in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.1) and 13th in rushing yards allowed per game (110.3) -- but the passing defense has been exploitable. The Jaguars rank 16th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.6) and 15th in pressure percentage (23.3%). They have proven especially vulnerable to opposing running backs, as they have given up the third-most receiving yards per game to that position (56). Let's head to our Broncos-Jaguars prediction.
Final Broncos-Jaguars Prediction & Pick
The Broncos and Russell Wilson have often turned to Melvin Gordon in the passing game. The veteran running back has caught 13 passes for 16.4 yards per game this season. He just ran a season-high 28 routes, good for a 59.6% route participation rate, against the New York Jets last week.
Gordon's best games as a receiver correspond to Denver's matchups against top-20 defenses in pressure percentage. He caught all but one of his passes against the Seahawks, 49ers, Colts and Jets -- all units that meet that threshold. Since the Jaguars rank 15th in pressure percentage but have often given up dump-off passes to running backs, betting on Gordon to go over a relatively low receiving yardage prop feels sharp. Bettors should split a unit and a half between Gordon's total yardage and total receptions.
Final Broncos-Jaguars Picks: Melvin Gordon Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-113) at FanDuel
Melvin Gordon Over 2.5 Receptions (+172 for 0.5 Unit) at FanDuel
Broncos-Jaguars OddsShopper Model Prediction
OddsShopper's industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props -- and even quarter- or half-based derivatives! Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model's predictions and best bets for each game. For the Week 8 matchup between the Jaguars and Broncos, the model has identified Russell Wilson as a player to fade at his current price.
Betting the under on Wilson's total rushing yards yields the highest expected ROI of any prop, spread or total for this game. Bettors looking to take advantage of that line can head to BetMGM for the best price on the market!
