Golf once again takes center stage in the sports world, with the second major of the season set to tee off. The PGA Championship takes us to Louisville and more specifically to Valhalla Golf Club, where the world’s best will be looking to add a major to the resume. The test is going to be challenging, and the outright market is filled with potential options. Let’s go over the course, field and odds to help us find some 2024 PGA Championship best bets for this week.
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PGA Championship Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions for 2024
PGA Championship Odds & Tournament Preview
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +400 |
| Rory McIlroy | +700 |
| Brooks Koepka | +1400 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1400 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +1600 |
| Jon Rahm | +1800 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +2200 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2800 |
| Max Homa | +3000 |
| Joaquin Niemann | +3300 |
Valhalla Golf Club is no stranger to hosting majors, having already been the venue of the PGA Championship three times. However, the last trip was back in 2014, so there’s not a ton we can take away from a decade-old event, even if Rory McIlroy hoisted the trophy.
The layout is a par 71 measuring around 7,600 yards with danger lurking in all forms. There is water on a handful of holes, but we are already getting reports of brutal rough that will punish erratic shots. This is a major setup, so with that comes the need for elite ball striking and timely scrambling when golfers miss.
All in all, players need to be in form to tackle this, and things like total driving or pure ball striking come into play as relevant stats. There are plenty of names that can take this down, but for the betting market we have to try and balance the names we like with the PGA Championship odds available.
PGA Outright Pick #1: Jon Rahm
I understand anyone wanting to ride the Rory McIlroy train this week given he’s on fire and coming to a course where he has previously won. He makes sense on every level, and he has a real chance to win here again. I chose to look further down to Jon Rahm, who has a number that continues to drop as more money comes in. With that in mind make sure you are shopping this and any play for the best price available in your market.
Rahm obviously headlines the LIV contingent in the field, and that adds more questions than answers. Week to week there is not the same information we would have had he stayed on the PGA Tour. Still, Rahm is built to tackle a course exactly like Valhalla, so the fit is not something to worry about. It’s always that delicate balance of form versus fit versus price, and at 18-1, Rahm checks most of the boxes.
Last time we saw Rahm outside LIV was at The Masters, where he was unable to get much going en route to an uneventful 45th-place finish. It’s one event, so I am not going to overdo it, and Valhalla is a great venue for his game given his driving abilities. If we get the best version of Rahm, odds of nearly 20-1 are a steal.
PGA Championship Pick: Jon Rahm (18-1 at FanDuel)
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PGA Outright Pick #2: Joaquin Niemann
We have officially entered the bizarro world with me backing not one but two LIV golfers on an outright card. Honestly, it wasn’t something I planned to do, but I absolutely have interest in Joaquin Niemann at this venue. Add in the fact that 40-1’s are disappearing quickly, and I have to take a position now or risk missing out on some value.
Niemann clearly is playing some of the best golf of anyone on LIV, and how much that matters is debatable, but it’s still nice to see. More importantly, his skillset should also translate to a long course that emphasizes staying out of the thick stuff.
The big question for Niemann is, when does it finally click at a major? He is just 25, so let’s not get crazy, but through 20 career major starts he still is without a top-10.
He has the talent, and the 2022 Genesis Invitational win bore all the resemblance to a field and layout worthy of a major championship.
Can Niemann make the leap from no top-10s to major winner? At 40-1, he’s another guy where I am willing to buy before we find out.
PGA Championship Pick: Joaquin Niemann (40-1 at BetMGM)
PGA Outright Pick #3: Cameron Young
It is ever a great feeling to back a guy to win a major before he’s won on the PGA Tour. Such is the scenario with Young here, who is still looking for his first victory. I and everyone else knows it’s going to happen, with his talent being too good to avoid the winner’s circle. Young finished ninth at Augusta and already battled against some of the best fields over the last two seasons. He has made 11 starts in majors in his career but already has five top-10 showings, which is incredibly impressive.
Considering Valhalla and what it demands, the course is another benefit to Young. Major-venue golf seems to suit his game given his quality results over the past few years, and length is not going to be an issue. Now, the concern is him getting eaten up around the green, but there are always some risks of that at a major. Young has mega distance off the tee, and sitting at 45-1, this is a good spot to bet his first win coming at a major.
PGA Championship Pick: Cameron Young (45-1 at FanDuel)
OddsShopper’s PGA Betting Tools & Tips
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