The 1-2 Washington Commanders and 2-1 Dallas Cowboys will square off in a surprisingly consequential divisional matchup. The Philadelphia Eagles are now the favorites to win the NFC East, but if the Cowboys can keep winning games with Cooper Rush under center, they could make it a contest late once Dak Prescott returns. The sportsbooks currently predict the Cowboys will top the Commanders by a field goal.
Rush and the rest of the offense have stepped up with Prescott sidelined. Still, Dallas’ only wins have come against a Bengals team that couldn’t protect Joe Burrow and a Giants team that couldn’t protect Daniel Jones. The Cowboys will need another solid performance from their pass rush to give Rush the help he needs to beat the Commanders.
Commanders vs. Cowboys Week 4 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Commanders vs. Cowboys Betting Odds
Washington Offensive Line Doesn't Exist
The Commanders might be worse than people realize. Washington ranks last in total defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) behind the 29th-ranked offense and 29th-ranked defense. Their lone win came against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles proceeded to absolutely blow them out. While the Commanders should get better once former Defensive Rookie of the Year Chase Young returns, nothing suggests he'll be back in time for this week.
Washington's offense -- especially the offensive line -- has looked terrible. The unit ranks 26th in adjusted line yards and 30th in adjusted sack rate. Commanders quarterback Carson Wentz has taken an NFL-high 15 sacks and faced pressure on 26.1% of his dropbacks. He has completed 63.1% of his passes for seven touchdowns -- most of which have come in garbage time -- and 5.28 net yards per attempt (NY/A). This situation could deteriorate next weekend with left tackle Charles Leno questionable and center Wes Schweitzer out.
The defense has looked better than the offense. Washington ranks 27th in yards allowed per play (6.3). The Commanders rank 19th in adjusted line yards and ninth in adjusted sack rate. They also rank fifth in opponent third-down conversion rate (30%). Washington's issue has been opponents getting downfield too quickly. The team ranks 26th in opponent points per play (.429) and 21st in first downs per play (.325).
Cowboys Boast an NFL-Best Pass Rush
The Cowboys have pulled off two wins without Dak Prescott. They'll look to keep that streak alive on Sunday with Cooper Rush under center. The backup quarterback deserves some credit -- he has completed 62.7% of his passes for two scores and 6.37 NY/A. He hasn't thrown a pick and has taken only three sacks behind a depleted, unimpressive offensive line. The Cowboys rank sixth in total DVOA through three weeks, although their offense ranks 27th and their defense first.
Rush has benefited from a solid running game. Despite significant roster turnover and an injury to star tackle Tyron Smith, the Cowboys' offensive line ranks eighth in adjusted line yards. Running backs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard rank 10th and 13th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement. The offensive line has given the two rushers an average of 2.75 yards before contact per play. Both members of the line's right side, tackle Terence Steele and guard Zack Martin, own PFF grades above 70.
The Cowboys' defense has gotten them this far. The Cowboys lead the NFL in both total sacks and adjusted sack rate. Star linebacker Micah Parsons already owns four sacks. Defensive ends DeMarcus Lawrence and Dorance Armstrong Jr. both own another three. That said, the pass rush has to be good to compensate for the Cowboys' underwhelming secondary. Trevon Diggs isn't on pace to repeat his 11-interception performance from last year and has continued to struggle in coverage, as have fellow cornerbacks Jourdan Lewis and Anthony Brown. All three own PFF grades below 60.
Commanders vs. Cowboys Prediction
The Cowboys should win and get plenty of sacks in the process. While DraftKings doesn't allow users to bet on a team's total sacks straight, those markets are available within the same-game parlay feature. Bettors can pair Dallas to get at least three sacks with the moneyline for a sharp parlay bet.
Wentz has taken at least three sacks in his last two stars, and the Cowboys have sacked opposing quarterbacks at least three times in that stretch. Washington's brutalized offensive line hasn't gotten any better, and losing center Wes Schweitzer to a concussion will complicate things for an already-battered unit. Look for the Commanders to routinely suffer sacks and tackles for loss as they struggle to move the ball downfield.
Commanders vs. Cowboys Same-Game Parlay: Cowboys ML + 3+ Sacks (+155) at DraftKings
Commanders vs. Cowboys OddsShopper Model Prediction
OddsShopper's industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props -- and even quarter- or half-based derivatives! Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model's predictions and best bets for each game. For the Week 4 matchup between the Commanders and Cowboys, the model has identified the first half spread as a line to target at its current price.
Backing the Cowboys to end the first half with at last a field-goal advantage yields the highest expected ROI of any prop, spread or total for this game. Bettors looking to take advantage of that line can head to BetMGM for the best price on the market!
