The Dallas Cowboys lost more than their game against the Tampa Buccaneers last night. Their struggling offensive line allowed four sacks and eight quarterback hits, one of which injured Dak Prescott. With surgery required, Prescott will now sit for multiple weeks. Accordingly, the NFL betting odds — especially those for the Dallas Cowboys — have shifted.
Dak Prescott requires surgery on his hand, will miss multiple weeks. pic.twitter.com/mhc2s7aHzz
— NFL (@NFL) September 12, 2022
Prescott likely suffered a Bennett fracture. The recovery timeline after surgery is around six-to-eight weeks. That said, former Rams quarterback Jared Goff was able to rush back from a similar procedure after 12 days, likely because the injury wasn’t that severe. If Prescott’s injury is of a similar nature, he could bounce back faster than some in the media expect. However, if the Cowboys place Prescott on injured reserve in the next few days, an expedited recovery timeline is out of the question.
2022 NFL Betting Odds: Dallas Cowboys Futures Picks
Be sure to check out Brady Goodman breaking down the fantasy implications of Prescott’s injury.
2022 NFL Dallas Cowboys Futures Betting Odds
Shorting Cowboys: NFL Divisional Betting Odds
The Cowboys' odds of winning the NFC East have plummeted to +500 or +550. Although the injuries to Prescott and guard Connor McGovern were not directly foreseeable, both are logical consequences of Dallas' recent underinvestment in the offensive line. After the unit ranked first last year, according to PFF two starters walked. Another, Tyron Smith, went down with an injury a few weeks ago. These trends led me to short the Cowboys at their price then, and the bets I recommended then are all now off the market.
That said, one of those plays still offers value. With Prescott out for the foreseeable future, the Cowboys have the fourth-ranked odds to win the NFC East. The Eagles sit between -130 and -155 across the market, but those odds deserve to be shorter. While Philadelphia didn't look perfect against Detroit, quarterback Jalen Hurts demonstrated fantastic chemistry with wide receiver A.J. Brown. That kind of connection should keep the Eagles competitive in games they're trailing.
Further, neither the New York Giants nor the Washington Commanders looked all that impressive yesterday. Both teams scored narrow wins over mediocre opponents. The Giants needed a missed field goal to top the Tennessee Titans, and the Commanders needed a late-game interception to seal the win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Both the Titans and Jaguars held fourth quarter leads as well. With Dallas likely to slide several games below .500, the Eagles' odds of winning the NFC East are far better than the implied line of about 57%.
Best NFC East Pick: Eagles to Win the NFC East | -130 at FanDuel
Shorting Cowboys: Game-by-Game Markets
Losing Prescott will force Kellen Moore to reevaluate his offensive approach. The Cowboys attempted 42 passes but only 18 runs last night, and while the negative game script accounts for much of that, Moore won't be able to trust backup Cooper Rush like he trusts Prescott.
Rush's ascension to the starting gig will likely benefit Dallas' short-yardage receivers. Rush attempted 13 passes last night, nine of which were short-yardage looks. Tight end Dalton Schultz earned two of those targets and caught both. Running backs Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott each logged a target as well.
Sack bettors should note that Rush went down on two of his 15 dropbacks. One of his 13 passing attempts led to an intentional grounding penalty after he attempted to bail out while under pressure. In contrast, Prescott had managed to take only two sacks all game on 31 dropbacks. The Cowboys are a team to target on sack markets until Prescott returns to the lineup.
