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Dolphins-Bills Pick & Prediction: Sharp Money Backing Sunday’s Favorites (Oct. 1)

The Buffalo Bills will host the Miami Dolphins this week. The Dolphins just scored 70 points last week, but they’ll have a tough task replicating that feat against the Bills this weekend. Each week, I post my NFL breakdowns early and provide updates later in the week, and you can find the rest of my picks here. Let’s dig into Sunday’s Dolphins-Bills betting odds from London as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 4 bet!

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Dolphins-Bills Pick & Betting Prediction | NFL Week 4

Dolphins-Bills Betting Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Dolphins: +126 | Bills: -148
Dolphins +2.5: -115 | Bills -2.5: -105
Over 53.5: -105 | Under 53.5: -115

Dolphins-Bills Pick & Prediction

The Miami Dolphins will head into Orchard Park after dropping a monstrous 70 points last week. I expect plenty of public action to come in on them for this matchup against the Buffalo Bills, but the home team is favored for a reason. The Dolphins may rank third in expected points added (EPA) per rush and first in EPA per pass, but the Bills rank fourth and fifth, respectively. Buffalo’s defense has also fared much better than Miami’s — the Bills rank 13th in EPA allowed per rush and second in EPA allowed per dropback, while the Dolphins rank 30th and 10th, respectively. Miami’s passing defense could also take a hit because the team’s leader in pass-rush win rate, Jaelan Phillips, suffered an injury in Week 3 and is out for Week 4.

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The Dolphins certainly run an efficient offense, but their stats are bolstered by two games against cupcake defenses, and they’re in for a wake-up call this weekend. Miami looked much less unstoppable against New England, and Buffalo’s defense is even better than theirs in several key areas. First, Buffalo ranks third in pass-rush win rate (57%), largely because of interior defensive linemen DaQuan Jones and Ed Oliver. Miami’s offensive line ranks 12th in pass-block win rate but could be without star center Connor Williams, who is questionable. Left tackle Terron Armstead is also questionable. Further, left guard Isaiah Wynn has proven quite beatable and owns a PFF grade of 55.7.

Second, Buffalo’s secondary will cause problems for Miami’s passing game. Jordan Poyer is out with a knee injury, but Micah Hyde is healthy. The Bills have a solid cast of cornerbacks and two talented backup safeties in Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp. Buffalo’s defense should pressure Tua Tagovailoa and prevent Miami’s star receivers from breaking off too many big plays, which is what they did early last season: the Bills held Hill and Jaylen Waddle to only 135 yards and no scores when these teams met last September.

Buffalo’s offense should roll against the sketchy Miami defense. Remember, the Dolphins nearly lost to the Chargers in Week 1. They’ve benefited from playing a pair of below-average offenses since then, but this Buffalo offense is far better than anything they’ve faced to this point. The Dolphins rank an impressive eighth in pass-rush win rate (50%) but now face an offensive line that ranks seventh in pass-block win rate (63%). Miami’s 31st-place ranking in run-stop win rate (26%) will also prove to be a liability against a Buffalo line that ranks eighth in run-block win rate (73%).

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As I anticipated in the early week column, the Dolphins are the public team. Per Pregame, Miami has drawn 66% of the tickets but only 55% of the cash. Yet despite the Dolphins’ popularity, the Bills are still trading as a 2.5-to-3-point favorite. The Bills are -126 (55.8%) to cover the 2.5 at Pinnacle, a sharp book, but you can buy them at -120 (54.6%) to cover at BetMGM and most other public books. Fade the public by tailing this Dolphins-Bills pick for Week 4.

Dolphins-Bills NFL Week 4 Pick: Bills -2.5 -120 at BetMGM

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