After a thrilling start to the year, the Detroit Lions have come crashing back to Earth. At 1-5, the playoffs are likely out of the question from Detroit, as is the Coach of the Year Award for Dan Campbell. A quick look at the NFL odds reveals that the Dolphins are road favorites over the Lions. Bettors should head to DraftKings Sportsbook to tail the below Dolphins-Lions prediction and picks — or check out our OddShopper tool to see what other sharp plays are still on the board.
NFL Odds: Dolphins-Lions Odds
Dolphins Offense Playing Exceptionally Well
With Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup, the Dolphins have re-entered the NFL's upper tier. He wasn't perfect as the Dolphins squeaked by the Steelers, but he was more than good enough. Miami now ranks 12th in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and slots in slightly above average in expected points added (EPA) per play.
The Dolphins have leaned on their offense this season. The unit ranks sixth in both offensive DVOA and yards per play (6.1). Head coach Mike McDaniel is yet to engineer a solid rushing attack -- the Dolphins rank just 25th in yards per rush attempt (3.9) -- but the passing game has looked exceptional because of sharp quarterback play and exceptional wide receivers.
Tagovailoa has completed 67.3% of his passes, which ranks sixth among 35 quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts, for 7.97 net yards per attempt (NY/A), which ranks first. Tagovailoa ranks eighth in on-target throw percentage (77.7%) despite routinely throwing the ball far downfield -- his 8.6 intended air yards per attempt (IAY/A) ranks eighth. His offensive line has held up, allowing him to face pressure on only 20.8% of his dropbacks. Tagovailoa has been solid even when pressured, as he has completed 47.6% of his passes under pressure.
Miami's defense has left a lot to be desired. The unit ranks 20th in defensive DVOA and 22nd in yards allowed per play (5.8). That said, it has been trending up -- the unit has allowed only 5.1 yards per play over its last three games, tying them for 10th through that span. Miami's pass defense has been the issue, as the Dolphins rank 25th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.2) and 29th in pressure percentage (15.5%). Let's take a look at Detroit's section for our Dolphins-Lions prediction.
The Lions Do Not Play Defense
Things aren't going as planned for the Detroit Lions. After a solid start grounded in efficient offensive play, the Lions have struggled to do much of anything lately. Injuries account for a major part of why -- star running back D'Andre Swift is yet to return, although he should be good for Week 8, and Amon-Ra St. Brown just returned last week before suffering a concussion. Still, the Lions now rank 26th in DVOA and are last in expected points added (EPA) per play.
Detroit's offensive efficiency has declined as the injuries have mounted. The unit that led the NFL in yards per play after Week 3 now ranks fourth (6.1). The Lions rank fourth in yards per rush attempt (5.3) and 12th in yards per pass attempt. Strong offensive line play has propelled Detroit's offense, as the unit ranks third in adjusted line yards and fifth in adjusted sack rate. Unfortunately, Jared Goff's pass blockers can't make him any less limited of a passer.
Goff has completed only 62.3% of his passes, which ranks 25th, for 6.66 NY/A. Although he ranks a solid ninth in on-target pass percentage, he hasn't often thrown far downfield -- his 7.5 IAY/A ranks just 20th. While Goff has been decent in throwing out of a clean pocket, his 25.6% completion percentage under pressure ranks 31st. That could become a problem with starting guard Jonah Jackson questionable.
But for all of Goff's limitations, it's Detroit's defense that deserves the most blame for the team's 1-5 record. The Lions rank 31st in defensive DVOA and 32nd in yards allowed per play (6.4). Detroit's defense has stopped neither the run nor the pass, as the unit ranks 31st in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.7) and 30th in yards allowed per rush attempt (5.3). The Lions have blitzed on 30% of their opponents' dropbacks but have forced pressure just 22.7% of the time, which ranks 17th. They have proven especially vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks, as they have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game to the position (27.6).
Final Dolphins-Lions Prediction & Pick
This is a fantastic get-right spot for Detroit's offense. The Lions have scored just six points over their last two games because Goff couldn't handle aggressive pass rushes. The team's opponents, the Patriots and Cowboys, both rank top three in pressure percentage. With the Dolphins ranked a lowly 29th in the metric, Detroit's offense should look more like it did earlier in the year.
The Lions cleared this number in each of their first four games. Losing wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and running back D'Andre Swift hurt, but both players should be available on Sunday. Miami ranks 23rd in points allowed per game (23.6), and that number jumps to an egregious 35 points per game when they play on the road.
Final Dolphins-Lions Pick: Lions Team Total Over 23.5 (-115) at DraftKings
Dolphins-Lions OddsShopper Model Prediction
OddsShopper's industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props -- and even quarter- or half-based derivatives! Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model's predictions and best bets for each game. For the Week 8 matchup between the Dolphins and Lions, the model has identified a Dolphins tight end as a player to fade at his current price.
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