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Dolphins-Patriots Pick & Prediction for Sunday Night Football (Sept. 17)

The New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins will square off on this week’s edition of Sunday Night Football. The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants didn’t put together a competitive game on Sunday last week, but this matchup should be a lot more competitive. Let’s dig into Sunday’s Dolphins-Patriots betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 2 bet!

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Dolphins-Patriots Pick & Betting Prediction | NFL Week 2

Dolphins-Patriots Betting Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Dolphins: -154 | Patriots: +130
Dolphins -2.5: -120 | Patriots +2.5: -102
Over 46.5: -110 | Under 46.5: -110

Dolphins-Patriots Pick & Prediction

The New England Patriots may have suffered a tough home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles last week, but they’ll get the chance to redeem themselves at home in Week 2. The Miami Dolphins are coming to town, and their high-flying passing attack could crack under the pressure of New England’s defensive front. These teams split their season series last year with the home squad winning both times, but the Patriots are a 2.5-point home underdog for Sunday Night Football. That’s a mistake for several reasons, including some key betting trends and several efficiency stats.

Let’s start with the Dolphins-Patriots trends. Since 2003, the Patriots are an elite 35-23-1 (60.3%) against the spread (ATS) as a home underdog, which ranks fourth in the NFL. The Dolphins are 1-3 (25%) ATS as a road favorite under head coach Mike McDaniel. While it’s worth noting that the Patriots have worsened to 1-5 ATS as a home underdog since 2021, which is when Mac Jones arrived in New England, three of those losses came with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge building the offense. They’re both gone, and a real offensive coordinator, Bill O’Brien, is at the helm.

Miami’s passing offense was the NFL’s best in Week 1, but they had the easy task of facing an L.A. defense that lacks meaningful talent at boundary cornerback and struggles to generate pressure. Tua Tagovailoa faced pressure on only 11.1% of his dropbacks in Week 1, but the Patriots pressured Jalen Hurts 39.7% of the time. New England’s defense benefited from some bad weather, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone to see them excel against the pass — the Patriots ranked third in expected points added (EPA) allowed per dropback last year.

While Miami’s offense has a much tougher task ahead in Week 2, New England’s offense gets a reprieve. Instead of facing the Eagles, who ranked fourth in EPA allowed per play last year, they get the 24th-ranked Dolphins. Miami’s defense couldn’t stop the Chargers last Sunday, allowing Justin Herbert to record 199 net passing yards and the backfield duo of Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley to add 208 rushing yards on 6.5 yards per carry. The Miami defense ranked 21st in pass-rush win rate (39%) and 32nd in run-stop win rate (18%). They trail the next-worst Lions by 5% in the latter metric.

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I’m surprised that sharp action hasn’t steamed this game closer to even, but the Patriots are still trading as 2.5-point favorites as of Saturday afternoon. Pregame reports that the Patriots have attracted 59% of the handle on only 35% of the tickets, so the sharps are on New England — the line just hasn’t moved yet. Miami’s defense was so impotent in Week 1 that they ranked 32nd in both passing and rushing play success rate. New England should score at will on Sunday Night Football.

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Dolphins-Patriots NFL Week 2 Pick: New England +2.5 -102 at FanDuel

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