The Minnesota Vikings and New York Jets collapsed in NFL Week 12. Both teams faced top-two pass rushes and dealt with injuries along their offensive lines. With the Vikings facing another top-two pass rush, they’re in a prim spot to fade in the Week 12 NFL betting odds. Bettors looking for a positive return from their early bets should tail these Week 12 NFL predictions and picks.
Sharp bettors often bet early. Identifying games where future line movement seems likely allows bettors to secure closing line value (CLV) relative to the game’s final spread. Taking a team to cover a 2.5-point spread has a much better chance of hitting than taking that same team to cover a 3.5-point spread, if it moves in that direction. Bettors can secure more value now than they’ll get right before kickoff by getting their action down on the Week 11 NFL betting markets early.
Early NFL Week 12 Predictions & Betting Picks
Patriots-Vikings: Fade Primetime Kirk Cousins
With Thanksgiving upon us, the NFL has its standard three-game slate for Turkey Day. The Detroit Lions will host the Buffalo Bills early, and the Dallas Cowboys will host the New York Giants in the early afternoon. But bettors can find the most value in the nightcap between the New England Patriots and Vikings — the books have listed Kirk Cousins as a favorite in primetime. Cousins imploded against the Eagles earlier this season and is yet to return to the big stage. He is 10-18 as a starter in primetime.
The Cowboys laid out the roadmap for beating the Vikings: Put Cousins under pressure. He took seven sacks and completed only 52.1% of his throws against Dallas’ elite pass rush, and the Vikings totaled a pathetic three points. They even lost starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw, who won’t be available Thursday. Darrisaw had an elite PFF grade of 89 before his injury, and they’ll now turn to backup Blake Brandel, who owns a grade of 45.9 on 79 snaps played. With Cousins completing only 37.5% of his throws under pressure, Minnesota’s passing game should struggle Thursday.
The Patriots have the personnel to do just what the Cowboys did. They rank second in pressure percentage (29.8%), trailing only the Cowboys (30.2%). New England just teed off against Zach Wilson for four sacks while allowing him to complete only 40.9% of his throws. The Patriots rank an impressive sixth in yards allowed per play (4.9) and fourth in yards allowed per pass attempt (5.8). Although they rank only 16th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.5), the Vikings rank 30th in rushing play percentage (35.7%) and have leaned on the pass under Kevin O’Connell.
Patriots-Vikings Prediction: Patriots +3 (-115 for 1.15 Units) at BetMGM
Broncos-Panthers: Buy Low on an Underrated Defense
Bettors should hold their noses and back the Denver Broncos this weekend. Although Denver has been unpleasant to watch (and stressful to back) this season, they deserve to be laying more points against the lowly Carolina Panthers. For all the team’s struggles, Denver’s defense ranks third in yards allowed per play (4.8) and ranks second in expected points added (EPA) per play.
Carolina’s offense has played terribly this year. They rank 23rd in yards per play (5.1) and averaged a pathetic 3.8 against the Ravens last week. Their rushing offense ranks a solid 16th in yards per play (4.5), but Christian McCaffrey helped boost those numbers early in the year. The Panthers are yet to name a starting quarterback, but none of their options are appealing. Baker Mayfield has gone for only 5.28 net yards per attempt (NY/A) this year, while P.J. Walker has gone for 6.06 NY/A. Sam Darnold, who recently returned to the roster, went for 5.27 NY/A last season.
Denver’s offense hasn’t looked good, but it’s been good enough to beat a bad Carolina team. With 6.06 NY/A, Russell Wilson has been as good or better than all three of Carolina’s quarterbacks this year. Cutting Melvin Gordon — who had fumbled five times, dropped three passes and averaged only 3.5 yards per carry — should help the offense minimize its mistakes. Bettors should back one of the NFL’s strongest defenses against a team that lacks a clear starter under center.
Broncos-Panthers Prediction: Broncos Moneyline (-130 for 1.3 Units) at DraftKings
