It’s time to continue our Lindy’s Best NFL Locks series. For Monday’s expert NFL picks, one of the running backs in this game has a truly bonkersville prop that is standing out as the best among Chargers-Jets locks. Let’s get into some Monday Night Football bets.
Expert NFL Picks Today: Chargers-Jets | November 6
Los Angeles Chargers–New York Jets (40.5 Game Total)
A matchup with massive playoff implications takes place on Monday night, with the Chargers (3-4) visiting the Jets (4-3). Both teams were bitten by the injury bug early in the 2023 season, and both found ways to steady the ship and put themselves right in the thick of things entering the hallway point of the season.
One of those healthy premiere players exists on the Chargers side in star running back Austin Ekeler, a focal point of the Chargers’ offensive scheme for years. His passing game involvement is second-to-none among backs in the NFL, and with 94 yards on seven catches last Sunday night against the Bears, I was expecting a receiving yardage prop in the low-to-mid 40s after he obliterated his 35.5 line in that game. Nope! We’re looking at an industry consensus between 32.5 — albeit heavily juiced in the -133 to -140 range — and 34.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook.
I would argue all of these are advantageous lines to be taking an over considering a few factors. For starters, WR2 Joshua Palmer was recently put on the IR, joining fellow Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams, who is already out for the season. Palmer was active in last week’s win, but the pass-catching outburst by Ekeler was surely buoyed by Palmer’s absence for a decent portion of that game. That means Ekeler and Keenan Allen should be in store for heavy workloads against a formidable Jets defense ranked second by PFF.
However, despite the Jets being an extremely tough defensive unit, they’ve allowed 322 yards receiving to running backs in just seven games this season, an average of 46 per game. And the 60 targets by quarterbacks to the running back position when facing the Jets? Seventh most in the NFL despite having played two fewer games than three of the teams listed above them. So with Ekeler hitting 69% of the running back snaps in Week 8 — and with the dire need to give star quarterback Justin Herbert passing game support sans his No. 2 and No. 3 wide receivers — the over of 32.5 receiving yards is as locky as a lock can get and playable up to 37.5.
Expert NFL Picks Today: Austin Ekeler OVER 32.5 Receiving Yards (LOCK) at FanDuel
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