It’s time to continue our Lindy’s Best NFL Locks Today series. For Thursday’s expert NFL picks, we are looking at a Giants-49ers running back play, but probably not the one you’re expecting. Let’s get into some Thursday Night Football bets.
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Expert NFL Picks Today: Giants-49ers | September 21
New York Giants–San Francisco 49ers (43.5 Game Total)
Thursday Night Football blesses us with the most lopsided affair of the season up to this point as the Saquon Barkley-less Giants head to San Francisco Bay to take on the Christian McCaffrey-present 49ers. Had Barkley not turned his ankle at the tail end of Sunday’s epic come-from-behind victory against the Cardinals, this would still have been a tough ask on the road for the Giants considering the lackluster state of their offense and non-existent state of their defense versus a 49ers team without those questions. But with their centerpiece back officially ruled out, bookmakers shot this line up from 4.5 to 10.5 where it currently sits, a radical change considering “running backs don’t matter” has become a common theme in betting circles and general manager circles alike.
The spread and total are landing in a pretty efficient spot, give or take a point, so I’m once again heading to the prop market for my top play from this game. And it comes from an unexpected place in Elijah Mitchell, who didn’t even see the field in Week 2’s victory over the Rams. Still, that feels like something that was done by design in anticipation of the short week. Mitchell was featured prominently during the playoffs last season: 23 rushing attempts in two playoff games, playing 22% and 33% of the snaps.
And while that may not sound like a lot, neither does 28.5 rushing yards with those snap allotments in mind, especially as a massive favorite in a home matchup against a Giants defense giving up 136.5 rushing yards per game (seventh most in the NFL). Mitchell also averaged an insane 6.2 rushing yards per attempt in 45 regular season totes in 2022, displaying just how much he can do with a few touches here and there. So between leaning on Week 2 being an outlier in terms of McCaffrey playing 100% of snaps as well as accounting for the multiple game scripts where Mitchell gets blowout running back work, I’m locking in this over on Mitchell as my must-play for Thursday night.
Expert NFL Picks Today: Elijah Mitchell Over 28.5 Rushing Yards (LOCK) at BetMGM
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