It’s time to continue our Lindy’s Best NFL Locks Today series. For Monday’s expert NFL picks, we are looking at a running back prop as well as examining a few other potential Seahawks-Giants locks. Let’s get into some Monday Night Football bets.
Expert NFL Picks Today: Seahawks-Giants | October 2
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Seattle Seahawks–New York Giants (47.0 Game Total)
After 2022’s comeback season for the New York Giants, 2023 has played out as more of a come-back-to-earth season. Through three weeks, quarterback Daniel Jones looks lost behind center since signing a massive contract extension in the offseason. Star running back Saquon Barkley turned his ankle at the tail end of Week 2’s wonky win against the lowly Cardinals, putting him in jeopardy of missing a second straight outing. And reigning Coach of the Year Brian Daboll had his offensive schemes completely blanketed by the heavy-hitting defenses of the Cowboys in Week 1 and the 49ers in Week 3.
But a date with the Seahawks on Monday Night has the potential to turn the offensive tide. Through three weeks, PFF grades Seattle as just the 21st-best defense in the NFL, a defense that’s failed to hold the opposition to less than 27 points in a game despite playing the fourth-easiest strength of schedule to start the season. It has also allowed well over 300 yards through the air in all three of its contests so far, making the overs on a number of Jones props at least intriguing to take shots on.
However, while Daboll might be able to concoct something to set up Jones for success in this matchup, I’m not sure he’ll be able to get the ground game going enough to justify Matt Breida’s rushing yards prop up in the upper 40s. The de facto lead back in Barkley’s absence attempted just four rushes in Week 3, racking up a grand total of just 17 yards. And yes, game scripts have resulted in the Giants carrying the second-highest percentage of passing plays per game in the NFL at 71.7%. But as abysmal as the Seahawks have been against the pass, they’re holding opposing ground games to a measly 79.3 rushing yards per game, a number I predict to improve after Monday night.
So while it might feel terrifying to short a lead back that just played 82% of snaps last week, Breida for under 48.5 rushing yards at -125 on BetMGM is simply too good of a number to pass up, especially considering the state of the Giants offensive line. It’s playable down to 44.5 as long as it’s inside of -115, but utilize OddsShopper to ensure you get the best line among the books available in your area.
Expert NFL Picks Today: Matt Breida UNDER 48.5 Rushing Yards (LIKE) at BetMGM