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Seahawks-Giants Pick & Prediction: Best Bet for Monday’s Action (Oct. 2)

The Seattle Seahawks head to the Big Apple for a date with the New York Giants in primetime. They began the week as underdogs, but they’ve since become the favorites to win this game. Each week, I post my NFL breakdowns early and provide updates later in the week, and you can find the rest of my picks here. Let’s dig into Monday’s Seahawks-Giants betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 4 bet!

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Seahawks-Giants Pick & Betting Prediction | Monday Night Football

Monday Night Football Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Seahawks: -130 | Giants: +110
Seahawks -1.5: -115 | Giants +1.5: -105
Over 47.5: -105 | Under 47.5: -115

Seahawks-Giants Pick & Prediction

The New York Giants opened as slight favorites for Monday Night Football this week. I locked in Seattle on the moneyline at +102 in the early week column, but the market has steadily corrected over the course of the week. The Giants will benefit from both home-field advantage and a few days of extra rest, but the Seahawks should be favored here.

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Sure, head coach Brian Daboll has gone 3-0 against the spread and 2-0-1 straight up when playing with a rest advantage. His team also ranks among the NFL’s worst in several key metrics, including expected points added (EPA) per pass attempt — the Giants rank 27th in that metric, far behind the seventh-ranked Seahawks. Those worried about New York’s home-field advantage should note that Seattle is tied for the NFL’s fifth-best record as a road underdog since 2022.

New York deserves some slack for having played a tough schedule thus far, but this team needed to string together a wild second-half comeback just to beat the Arizona Cardinals. The lone silver lining for the Giants has been the running game, but the injury to Saquon Barkley will more than likely hold him out of Week 4’s game. Further, Seattle’s defense ranks 10th in EPA allowed per rush attempt, largely because of a defensive front that ranks seventh in run-stop win rate (33%).

The Giants have a talent-poor roster that requires their few above-replacement-level players to produce at an elite level for the team to find any success. Unfortunately, several of their big names, including Barkley, are already hurt. Star left tackle Andrew Thomas has already been ruled out as well. That leaves Evan Neal and Joshua Ezeudu to man the tackle spots, but both of them own PFF grades below 50 through 100-plus snaps.

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Geno Smith may not be the NFL’s best quarterback, but Seattle’s offense is stacked with elite weapons. Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and Kenneth Walker III form an elite offensive core, drawing defensive attention away from rookie-year Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Noah Fant, helping the overall unit look that much better. Seattle’s seventh-ranked passing offense by EPA is a great complement to its top-ranked rushing offense. The once-terrible Seattle offensive line now ranks 10th in pass-block win rate (62%) and 11th in run-block win rate (72%), and it should help power this team to a road win on Monday.

Seahawks-Giants NFL Week 4 Pick: Seattle ML -125 at BetMGM

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Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and division previews. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 4 now!

Isaiah Sirois


Isaiah Sirois

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