There is an NFC East showdown with the second-place Dallas Cowboys hosting the third-place New York Giants this Thanksgiving in Texas. Dallas opened as an 8-point favorite before being bet up to 9.5, which is where the line currently sits. As of Wednesday morning, 39% of the tickets and 41% of the handle are on the Cowboys. The Giants might be the biggest surprise in the NFL this season, but their luck may be running out. One strategy to bet this game includes a Saquon Barkley yards rushing plus receiving prop. Let’s dive further into the Giants-Cowboys matchup to make the best prediction and pick. For more best bets or to compare the best NFL odds, be sure to check out the OddsShopper tool.
NFL Odds: Giants-Cowboys Odds
Giants: +9.5 (-105)
Cowboys: -9.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Giants (+330); Cowboys (-425)
Over/under: 45.5 (-110)
New York Runs on Saquon Barkley
The Giants (7-3) continue to shock people with their success, which is mostly due to the play of superstar running back Saquon Barkley.
Barkley’s prop for yards rushing plus receiving sits at 71.5. Now is the time to buy low on Barkley, who recorded just 35 yards rushing plus receiving last week against the Detroit Lions. One week prior, he combined for 160 yards against the Houston Texas. Three weeks prior, Barkley combined for 135 yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars. In fact, Barkley has gone over this total in eight of his 10 games this season.
One of those games came against the Cowboys, a contest in which Barkley combined for 126 yards. In games that he has finished against Dallas, Barkley has gone over this number all six times.
Dallas Defense Can’t Stop the Run
The Cowboys (7-3) have a big problem defensively and cannot stop opposing running backs. Entering this week, they rank just 26th in the NFL in yards rushing allowed per game.
Their poor defensive play was predictable before the season started due to the weak personnel outside of Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. The latter is questionable for Thursday with a foot injury and an illness, and he is looking unlikely to play based on the short week. Entering the season, Pro Football Focus ranked the Cowboys defensive line and secondary 21st in the league.
This defense has been specifically susceptible to running backs. It allowed 72-plus yards rushing/receiving to Leonard Fournette in Week 1, Joe Mixon in Week 2, Barkley in Week 3, Jamaal Williams in Week 7, Khalil Herbert in Week 8, Aaron Jones in Week 10 and Dalvin Cook in Week 11. That’s a litany of backs that have taken the Cowboys defense to task.
Their run defense has seemingly gotten worse as the season has progressed, while running backs with the ability to catch out of the backfield have feasted against the Cowboys. Based on the personnel they’re currently stuck with, there shouldn’t be much optimism in Dallas to turn it around.
Final Giants-Cowboys Prediction & Pick
Dallas has gotten killed by running backs in each of their last four games, and that should not change in this matchup. Barkley’s line for yards rushing plus receiving is too low at 71.5 yards given how he can beat defenses both on the ground and through the air. The Giants-Cowboys prediction shouldn’t change here. The best pick is to stick with the trends and back Barkley to get over this number for the ninth time in 11 games this season.
Final Giants-Cowboys Prediction: Saquon Barkley Prop: Over 71.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
