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Jaguars-Falcons Pick & Prediction: Sunday’s Total Stands Out (Oct. 1)

The Jacksonville Jaguars head to London for back-to-back games across the pond this weekend. They’ll play the Atlanta Falcons this week before facing the Buffalo Bills next week. I’ve got my eye on a total bet for this game. Each week, I post my NFL breakdowns early and provide updates later in the week, and you can find the rest of my picks here. Let’s dig into Sunday’s Jaguars-Falcons betting odds from London as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 4 bet!

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Jaguars-Falcons Pick & Betting Prediction | NFL Week 4

Jaguars-Falcons Betting Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Jaguars: -162 | Falcons: +136
Jaguars -3: -110 | Falcons +3: -110
Over 43.5: -105 | Under 43.5: -115

Jaguars-Falcons Pick & Prediction

The Jacksonville Jaguars and Atlanta Falcons will travel to London for another installment in the NFL’s International Series. We’ll get to watch football extra early because of the 9:30 a.m. kickoff, which I’m looking forward to doing. Unfortunately, if you’re expecting a high-scoring game, this probably isn’t the matchup for you. Jacksonville’s inefficient offense and Atlanta’s run-heavy, slow-paced scheme should keep the scoring to a minimum across the pond.

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Let’s start with Jacksonville’s offense. The Jaguars were one of the NFL’s most efficient offenses last year but currently rank 22nd in expected points added (EPA) per rush and 29th in EPA per dropback. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence ranks 27th in the metric, slightly ahead of Atlanta’s 30th-ranked Desmond Ridder. While Jacksonville should benefit from some positive regression soon, they’ll have to contend with an Atlanta defense that ranks a steady sixth in EPA allowed per rush. The Falcons do rank only 20th in EPA allowed per dropback, however.

But Atlanta’s struggles against the pass are made up for by Arthur Smith’s brand of complementary football. The Falcons’ efficient running game will allow them to keep the ball away from Lawrence and work the clock. They rank seventh in rushing play percentage (47.6%) and 10th in EPA per rush attempt, helping them hold their opponents to the sixth-fewest plays per game (61). The Falcons have coughed up totals of 10, 24 and six points over their first three games, which have seen an average of just 36.3 points scored.

Traveling abroad can be disorienting for teams, but lately, we’ve seen the long trip depress scoring — at least when the Jaguars take the field. None of Jacksonville’s last four London games produced more than 43 points. Those contests saw an average of just 37.8 points scored. It’s hard to project Jacksonville’s offense for their implied total of 23 given how inefficient they’ve looked this year, and Atlanta’s offense may struggle to reach 20 if the unit can successfully wind out the clock with a lead.

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I recommended buying the under 43.5 in the early week column, and since then, we’ve seen this total tick down to 43 at almost every major sportsbook. Almost. Using OddsShopper’s tools, we can see that FanDuel is hanging a 43.5 still, and while we’ll have to eat the -115 to buy it, it’s worth it for the extra half point we’re getting. Pregame reports that 58% of the cash has come in on the under on only 36% of the tickets, so let’s tail the sharps and get some action on this one to be a low-scoring game.

Jaguars-Falcons NFL Week 4 Pick: Under 43.5 -115 at FanDuel 

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