The New York Jets will have second-year quarterback Zach Wilson back for their Week 4 game against the Pittsburgh Steelers after three weeks of Joe Flacco. Flacco had been playing well, but the Jets still need to see what they have in last year’s second overall pick. Wilson completed only 55.6% of his passes for nine touchdowns and 4.6 net yards per attempt (NY/A) last season, so New York will want to see big strides out of him. The sportsbooks predict the Steelers will beat the Jets by 3.5 on Sunday.
Unlike the Jets, the Steelers will continue to start bridge quarterback Mitch Trubisky over rookie first-rounder Kenny Pickett. Trubisky played well enough for the Steelers to beat the Bengals in Week 1, but they have since dropped games against the Patriots and Browns. Should Trubisky falter in Week 4, the Steelers may pivot to Pickett — although preseason reporting suggested that the team intends to keep Pickett on the bench all year.
Jets vs. Steelers Week 4 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Jets vs. Steelers Betting Odds
Jets Secondary Giving Up Splash Plays
Quarterback Zach Wilson's debut will dominate the headlines heading into Sunday's contest. The second-year signal caller will likely get compared to Joe Flacco most of the season after Flacco's respectable stretch as a New York Jet. The veteran completed 58.7% of his passes for five touchdowns and 5.13 NY/A. Although Flacco took nine sacks and threw three interceptions, he was on pace to complete more passes for more points and yards -- and to take fewer sacks and throw fewer picks -- than Wilson did in his rookie year.
Flacco benefited from a solid but unspectacular set of offensive weapons. Wide receiver Corey Davis ranks 29th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) and 30th in total receiving yards. Sophomore Elijah Moore and rookie Garrett Wilson rank 50th and 54th of 72 receivers with at least 12 targets, respectively. Running back Michael Carter ranks 23rd in DYAR among running backs with at least 24 carries, while Breece Hall ranks second among those with between four and 23. Extrapolating Hall's 21 carries to 24 reveals that he would rank 14th at his current rate of DYAR per carry. New York's makeshift offensive line also ranks a surprising 14th in adjusted line yards and 15th in adjusted sack rate after three weeks.
Even if Wilson can improve New York's offense slightly, the defense needs a serious shot in the arm. The unit ranks last in defensive DVOA and 29th in yards allowed per passing play (7.5). The defensive front, which ranks 15th in yards allowed per rush (4.3) and 12th in rush defense DVOA, ranks only 25th in adjusted sack rate. The Jets are trusting 5-foot-9 D.J. Reed as a boundary cornerback, and while he owns an impressive PFF grade of 75.2 through three weeks, he is yet to face a wideout taller than 6-foot-1. Reed is yet to get burned, but no one else in this secondary is. Jordan Whitehead and Michael Carter II got burned for a 56-yard touchdown in Week 3. Sauce Gardner and Whitehead got burned for a 6-yard touchdown in Week 2. Lamarcus Joyner and Carter got burned for a 55-yard touchdown in Week 1. The Jets have struggled in zone coverage this year, and the Steelers could exploit that on Sunday afternoon.
Steelers Passing Game Has Underperformed
Steelers quarterback Mitch Trubisky is already facing calls for his head. Steelers fans, eager to see what the team has in rookie Kenny Pickett, want the beleaguered journeyman quarterback gone. Their desires are not unwarranted -- Trubisky has completed 60.2% of his passes for two touchdowns and only 5.07 NY/A. He has taken only five sacks and thrown only one interception, but he has struggled with accuracy. Only 66.3% of Trubisky's throws have been on target, which ranks third-worst among eligible quarterbacks. Worse, Trubisky has faced pressure on only 15.3% of his dropbacks, which ranks fifth-lowest. He has no excuse for not making better throws.
Although Pittsburgh's offensive line has looked surprisingly solid, Trubisky's receivers haven't been much help. Chase Claypool, George Pickens and Diontae Johnson all rank 60th or worse in DYAR among receivers with at least 12 targets. They rank 60th, 65th, and 72nd, respectively. Even though some of Trubisky's throws have been inaccurate, the three wideouts have struggled to hold onto catchable balls. The three own true catch rates of 78.6%, 62.5% and 75%, respectively -- all of which rank 68th or worse. Notably, Johnson leads the three wideouts in target rate and separation against zone coverage. He averages a whopping four yards of separation against zone looks.
Pittsburgh's unremarkable offense has benefited from an above-average defense. The unit ranks 12th in defensive DVOA and in yards allowed per play (5.1). That said, the Steelers rank only 25th in opponent third-down conversion rate (46.9%) and 32nd in opponent time of possession (59.6%). Those numbers are likely skewed by Pittsburgh's opponents, as the Browns and Patriots both own offense that rank in the top 10 for run percentage. The New York Jets rank last in rushing play percentage (25.7%), although frequent negative game scripts have likely forced them to pass more often than Robert Saleh would like.
Jets vs. Steelers Prediction
Since the Jets have struggled against zone coverage, backing Diontae Johnson feels sharp. He has consistently gotten separation against zone coverage. Although Johnson has underperformed in some advanced metrics, efficiency matters less when a player gets tons of volume. Johnson leads the Steelers in target share (32.4%), route participation (99%) and air yards share (36.7%).
The number for Johnson's receiving yards sits at 60.5 across the market. Johnson has beaten that number just once this year, and it came against the Browns last week. He came close in Weeks 1 and 2 with 55 and 57 yards, respectively. With a season average of 6.7 yards per target, Johnson should beat this number with just eight looks, which would be two below his lowest share on the year.
Jets vs. Steelers Prediction: Diontae Johnson Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at DraftKings
Jets vs. Steelers OddsShopper Model Prediction
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