Are you ready to start making some money this NFL season? Player props are always a blast, and anytime touchdown scorer bets are an even more fun sweat for Sundays — and Thursdays! With the NFL back in full swing starting this weekend, I’m excited, and you should be, too. Let’s identify the best Lions-Chiefs player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Week 1’s edition of Thursday night football.
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down the upcoming NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and Week 1 picks. Come back during the NFL season for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 1 now!
Lions-Chiefs Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Thursday Night Football
Thursday Night Football Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Lions: +190 | Chiefs: -200
Lions +5.5: -110 | Chiefs -5.5: -105
Over 52.5: -112 | Under 52.5: -108
Lions-Chiefs Player Prop
The Chiefs may have just won last year’s Super Bowl, but they’re starting this season with several new faces in key places. Left tackle Donovan Smith and right tackle Jawaan Taylor will replace Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie, respectively. The new starting duo scored a combined 20 points worse in PFF grading than the duo they’ll replace, which bodes poorly for the amount of time Patrick Mahomes will have in the pocket.
Kansas City’s offense line was the cream of the crop last season, at least when it came to pass protection. The Chiefs led the NFL in pass-block win rate (75%) by a seven percentage-point margin. They ranked tied for second in 2021 (68%). It will be difficult for them to replicate what they accomplished in the trenches last year, and although the interior blockers are good, the Lions could find an edge on, well, the edge.
We could take a handful of angles on the player prop markets if we’re planning to fade Kansas City’s offensive line. Less time to throw means more dump-off passes, potentially giving Jerick McKinnon a boost. It also means fewer throws far downfield, possibly pointing to value on the under for Patrick Mahomes‘ passing yards — or the over for his rushing yards. But ultimately, I’m most excited about Aidan Hutchinson over 0.75 sacks.
We’ll need Hutch to record a full, solo sack to cash this wager — or two half-sacks — but he should feast against Kansas City’s offensive tackles, Smith and Taylor. He recorded 9.5 sacks last season, almost all of which came with him rushing on the edge, not on the interior, and he played on 80% of the defensive snaps or more almost every week. He is trading at odds of only +180 (35.7%), so let’s take advantage and fade Kansas City’s new tackles with this Lions-Chiefs player prop pick for Thursday night.
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Lions-Chiefs Player Prop Pick: Aidan Hutchinson Over 0.75 Sacks +180 at DraftKings
Lions-Chiefs Anytime Touchdown Scorer
The Chiefs didn’t just get worse in the offensive trenches. Star defensive tackle Chris Jones is holding out for a new contact, and he almost certainly will not play in Week 1. Frank Clark also left in the offseason, which leaves the Chiefs undermanned along the defensive line. Defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi, who figures to see plenty of action in Week 1 with Jones sidelined, recorded an atrocious 41.3 PFF grade last season after posting a 52.8 in 2021.
It’s not like Kansas City’s defense was that good at stopping the run with both Clark and Jones active, either. Kansas City ranked a league-worst 32nd in run-stop win rate (26%) last year. However, opposing teams just couldn’t afford to run the ball because of their high-scoring offense. The Chiefs gave up the eighth-fewest rushing yards to running backs (1,380) despite surrendering a league-average 4.4 yards per carry.
The Lions showed an eagerness to run the ball in goal-to-go situations, which led to goal-line back Jamaal Williams racking up a stunning 17 rushing scores. With Williams in New Orleans and D’Andre Swift shipped over to Philadelphia, the Lions have a brand-new backfield that features David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs. Montgomery profiles as the goal-line back, and he could replicate Williams’ success.
Montgomery will receive plenty of help from a powerful Detroit offensive line. The Lions ranked ninth in run-block win rate (72%) a year ago. All five starters will return to the lineup this year, which bodes well for continuity, especially relative to the defensive unit they’ll line up against. Montgomery’s anytime touchdown scorer odds vary from -105 (51.2%) at BetMGM to +115 (46.5%) at DraftKings, so let’s buy his Lions-Chiefs anytime touchdown scorer bet at the best price available.
Lions-Chiefs Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: David Montgomery +115 at DraftKings
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