The NFL got it right on Thursday Night Football to kick the season off with a matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Buffalo Bills. Let’s take advantage by finding value in various markets.
We have an opportunity to win some money on No House Advantage.
There are two types of contests to play: “Pick ‘Em” and “Vs The House.” Let’s try to help narrow down the field by highlighting some props to target.
No House Advantage Pick’Em Contest Plays
Allen Robinson: Over 50.5 Receiving Yards
Robinson needed a change of scenery in the worst way. Trapped within a terrible Bears’ offense last year, he caught only 38 passes for 410 yards and one touchdown. While being limited to 12 games because of injury was a factor, it’s still a far cry from the production that we were used to seeing from him.
Not only did Robinson land with a new team this offseason, but he received a massive upgrade at quarterback in Matthew Stafford. He also has a great running mate in Cooper Kupp, which means he likely won’t face the opposition’s top cornerback most weeks. Prior to last year, Robinson had back-to-back seasons in which he had at least 98 receptions and 1,147 receiving yards. The NFL Player Props Tool projects Robinson to have 64 receiving yards. Look for him to start this season off with a bang.
Matthew Stafford: Over 0.5 Interceptions
Stafford was just what the Rams needed to get over the hump and win a Super Bowl last year. He had a monster regular season, throwing for 4,886 yards and 41 touchdowns passes. The 41 touchdowns tied his previous career high, and his passing yardage total was the third-highest mark of his career.
As good as Stafford was, he did throw 17 interceptions. That’s nothing new for him, given that he has thrown at least 16 interceptions in a season five times during his career. The Bills being without top cornerback Tre’Davious White (knee) does help Stafford, but the over here is still an appealing option.
Vs The House Contest
Cooper Kupp: Over 88.5 Receiving Yards
Kupp put together one of the all-time great seasons for a wide receiver last year. The Rams threw his way a whopping 191 times, which he converted into 145 catches, 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. It was Kupp’s first season with at least 100 receptions, and just his second time surpassing 1,000 receiving yards. He quickly gelled with Stafford, and their relationship should only further improve this season.
With his lofty stats, Kupp posted at least 89 receiving yards in all but one game last season. This number seems crazy-low then, right? The addition of Robinson has something to do with that, and it will likely be difficult for Kupp to replicate those monster numbers. However, in what could be a high-scoring affair with the Bills, the over here is the way to go.
Josh Allen: Under 275.5 Passing Yards
Taking the under on any Allen prop might seem like blasphemy. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and he has plenty of weapons around him. The Bills did move on from wide receiver Cole Beasley, but they still have plenty of quality options at the position with Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder. Tight end Dawson Knox is also dangerous, especially inside the red zone.
As good as Allen — and the talent around him — is he doesn’t always post lofty passing totals. In fact, he threw for 275 yards or fewer in 11 of 17 games last season. He can do plenty of damage with his legs, which does sometimes impact his passing numbers. This also won’t be the easiest of matchups for him with cornerback Jalen Ramsey patrolling the secondary for the Rams. They also upgraded their linebacker position by bringing over Bobby Wagner from the Seahawks. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Allen start things off with a fairly muted passing yards total. The NFL Player Props Tool projects Allen to throw for 265.46 yards.
