NFL Trends: Chiefs-Broncos, Panthers-Seahawks, Jaguars-Titans

Public perception plays into betting the NFL more than any other sport. Knowing where the public is betting and when to follow, or bet against it, is the difference between being a profitable bettor or being in the red. There are three games this week in which the public has made at least 75% of the bets. All of those games have a unique handicapping angle. Let’s dive deeper into some Week 14 NFL betting trends. For more of the sharpest NFL bets, check out the OddsShopper tool.

This week we have a couple of divisional matchups in which the underdogs are in strong positions. The Jaguars are primed to pull an upset against the Titans and the Broncos defense should be able to keep things close against the Chiefs. The Panthers travel to Seattle and getting four points is attractive as they are coming off the bye week.

The picks in this article went 2-1 last week and have been 29-18 (62%) on the season. Let’s dive in to the best NFL betting trends to track for Week 14.

Week 14 NFL Trends & Handles vs. Bet Percentage Plays

Chiefs-Broncos (Chiefs -9, 44)

Chiefs -9; Bets 80%, Handle 78%

The Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) travel to Denver to face the Broncos (3-9) at Sports Authority Field (I wanted to say Mile High Stadium) Sunday afternoon in an AFC West battle. The Chiefs are tied with the Bills in the AFC and just one game in front of the Dolphins, Ravens, and Bengals. The Broncos have very little motivation left in the season but this is a huge rivalry game at home.

The Chiefs once again are at the top of the NFL in offense ranking 1st in DVOA but just 25th in defensive DVOA. They are 1st in points scored, passing offense, and total offense. The Broncos are 28th in offensive DVOA and 7th in defensive DVOA. They are 3rd in passing yards allowed, 2nd in points allowed, and 3rd in total yards allowed.

The Chiefs are an incredible 21-2 in their last 23 road games against the AFC West. They are 7-2 straight up but just 3-6 against the spread in their last nine games as road dogs of at least four points. They are 9-2 SU and 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games in which they have been favored by at least four points. This is a team that wins games, but their point spreads are inflated due to being a public team. Also, their defense is middle of the pack and opponents are able to move the ball against them.

The Broncos have been strong home dogs going 6-3 ATS in their last nine games. They are 4-2 ATS in their last six games as home dogs against the AFC West.

The Chiefs have won the last five games in this series and the last five in Denver. They should continue the winning streak, but the Broncos defense is going to keep this game close.

Best Chiefs-Broncos Bet: Fade the public, Broncos +9 (DraftKings -110)

Panthers-Seahawks (Seahawks -4.5, 44)

Seahawks -4.5; Bets 76%, Handle 40%

The Carolina Panthers (4-8) face off against the Seattle Seahawks (7-5) Sunday at Lumen Field in Seattle, WA. Despite their 4-8 record, the Panthers are still very much in the hunt for the NFC South and a playoff spot. The Seahawks as of today are in the 7th spot in the NFC playoff race.

After starting 1-5, the Panthers are 3-3 in their last six games (21.1-20.0 points per game). Their defense has been solid all season, but even stronger in the last three games allowing just 15, 13, and 10 points. Carolina is 30th in offensive DVOA, 21st in defensive DVOA, and 28th in total DVOA. The Panthers are 0-5 on the road, 2-8 in their last 12 road games as dogs of four or more points, but 6-4 against the spread.

The Seahawks are in the top ten in the key offensive categories (7th in passing, 9th in total yards, and 5th in points per game), but near the bottom in most of the key defensive categories (30th total yards, 28th points allowed, 31st rushing yards allowed, 20th passing yards allowed). They are just 3-4 straight up and 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games when favored by at least four points.

Good defenses can keep games close (see Broncos above) but bad defenses can squander away leads and eventually the game. Laying more than a field goal with a defense like Seattle is too risky and playing the “number” becomes the play here with the Panthers +4.5.

Best Panthers-Seahawks Bet: Fade the public, Panthers +4.5 (DraftKings -110)

Jaguars-Titans (Titans -4, 41)

Titans -4; Bets 76%, Handle 41%

The Tennessee Titans (7-5) host the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) in a AFC South clash at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, TN on Sunday afternoon. The Titans have been outscored 240-219 but have a winning record. The Titans have a 3.5 game lead in the AFC South and should be able to win the division barring a collapse

The Titans are 20th in offensive DVOA, 12th in defensive DVOA, and 16th in total DVOA. The Jaguars are 17th in offensive DVOA, 29th in defensive DVOA, and 24th in total DVOA. The concern about the Titans is their rushing offense is just 15th with Derrick Henry, while already being 30th in passing. The Jaguars are 9th in rushing and 14th in passing yardage.

History is not on the Jaguars in this series. The Titans are 11-2 straight up and 9-3-1 against the spread in their last 12 games against the Jaguars. They are 9-1 to the UNDER in their last 10 home games as favorites. The only game that went over was by just 1.5 points.

The Jaguars have lost 14 in a row on the road against the AFC South and are 4-9-1 ATS in those games.

Despite the Titans success in the series and the Jags road struggles against the AFC South, the Titans play too many close low scoring games to lay more than a field goal. The Jaguars can keep this game close with a potential outright win.

Best Jaguars-Titans Bet: Fade the public, Jaguars +4 (DraftKings -110)

Week 14 NFL Trends & Public Betting: Broncos Keep it Close Against Chiefs

Week 14 NFL Trends & Handles vs. Bet Percentage Plays

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