Last week’s hero came in the form of multiple people coming together for the +175 Commanders as they took down the Broncos — in Denver! It took guts from Sam Howell, brains from Eric Bieniemy, and a loss of heart by Russell Wilson and Sean Payton. Let’s head to Week 4, where plenty of options present themselves for the taking, some a little juicer than others. This week won’t take much more than a team and head coach not outthinking themselves. Football is a game of chess, and coaches constantly lose by trying to outthink the other side, in turn moving away from what works in the process. To Cleveland we go, as we will have to get a little creative in finding the best NFL upset pick for Week 3.
NFL Upset & Underdog Pick: Week 3
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Odds via PointsBet
Titans: +130 | Browns: -160
Titans +3.0: -110 | Browns -3.0: -110
Over 39.5: -110 | Under 39.5: -110
Titans-Browns Upset Pick
The Cleveland Browns just watched their best player suffer one of the more gruesome injuries seen in years. There’s little doubt Nick Chubb is done, but how the Browns bounce back is still up for question. The Browns already struggled to move the football and needed their All-Pro running back just to stay in games. There’s a pathway for Deshaun Watson to score some points against the visiting Titans, but actually taking advantage of that requires significantly better play. In fact, if Watson were playing anywhere near capable at the quarterback position, this game wouldn’t even make the upset table. The unfortunate matter for Cleveland is they turn around on a short week minus Chubb and now face one of the most physically punishing run defenses in the NFL.
The Titans face a tougher defense in the Browns than last week’s opponent in the Chargers. It won’t be as easy to pass on Cleveland, but relying on Derrick Henry becomes more essential. Mike Vrabel will continue to look to Nick Folk to provide a majority of the offense, especially against a stingy Browns team that gave up just one big play to the Steelers. The Titans pass defense has some holes, but Watson hasn’t proven to be anything near competent enough to pick that unit apart, especially with Cleveland’s run game being neutralized. Expect a heavy pass rush from the Titans, knowing that Cleveland will be forced to make some uncomfortable decisions to throw early in the game.
The Titans are currently +130 on the moneyline, and there may not be a better dog to bet this week. The matchups line up for Vrabel and his defense, as his quarterback can be slightly better by limiting mistakes. Expect a lot of field goals in this game, even another game winner by Folk. Kicker battles are far from exciting except when they cash an outright dog!
NFL Upset Pick for Week 3: Titans +130 (PointsBet)