Last season in the NFL, the underdog won outright 99 times or 37% of the regular season games. This was the most outright underdog wins since 2006. Will the underdog’s streak continue into Week 1 of the NFL season?
There are plenty of home underdogs on the slate on Sunday. Three of them stand out.
Let’s see who can pull off the upset and build our bankrolls early in the season.
Minnesota Vikings +100 over Green Bay Packers (DraftKings)
I have been very bullish all summer on the Vikings, so I’m not going to stop Week 1. I mentioned earlier this week how I even bet the Vikings +4000 to win the Super Bowl. They open at home against division rivals Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. The Packers are likely to be without their top WR Allen Lazard in an already-thin receiving core. I think new head coach Kevin O’Connell gets this offense clicking right out of the gate, and I don’t think Rodgers and a depleted offense will be able to keep up.
Dallas Cowboys +122 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (Caesars)
The public is packing the Buccaneers here. Last year this opener was a shootout and a fantastic game. I’m not sure if we’ll get quite the same fireworks, as both the Cowboys and Buccaneers will be missing weapons. Michael Gallup is still recovering from his season-ending injury. So is Chris Godwin, but he will be a game-time decision. We know that Rob Gronkowski is now retired. But Tom Brady has three new offensive linemen, so how they gel to protect Brady from a tough Dallas defense will be a key in this game.
Detroit Lions +190 over Philadelphia Eagles at (DraftKings)
I have also been bullish on the Lions this offseason. I think the addition of edge Aidan Hutchinson in the draft and getting back their 2021 1st round pick CB Jeff Okudah is a huge boost for this defense. The Lions are essentially adding two top-3 NFL Draft picks to their young defensive core that is poised to take the next step.
The Lions’ offense is filled with weapons for Jared Goff, including RB D’Andre Swift, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, and TE T.J. Hockenson. They also have a top-5 offensive line as ranked by Sharp Football Analysis.
Yes, the Eagles are a good team on both sides of the ball that is strongly backed by the public. I am skeptical that QB Jalen Hurts can step up to be the efficient passer they need him to be to consistently win games. So while this is a long shot, it is one I’m taking at +190.
