Wagering on the totals in the NFL gives bettors another option to get exposure on a particular team or game. Team trends on offense and defense play a big part in where oddsmakers set the opening lines. There are also ways to bet on team totals or first half (total or team total). This year, significant trends on the under have manifested as several teams have dealt with key injuries on offense. Nevertheless, it’s time to look at the NFL Week 12 best bets and predictions, featuring some Panthers odds and a bold Broncos prediction.
There are three games we have targeted this week for totals plays and they all look to be lower scoring and UNDER plays based on a number of factors. All three games have totals less than 40 points and I still like the UNDER in all of them and it is driven by the conbination of poor quarterback play versus strong defenses.
NFL Week 12 Best Bets for Game and Team Totals
Bears-Jets (Jets -6, 38.5)
It has been a wild week for both teams as the Jets benched quarterback Zach Wilson in favor of Mike White, after Wilson’s poor play against the Patriots last week. But he also did not help himself in the post game press conference when asked if he let the defense down, by answering “No”. This set off a chain of events eventually causing head coach Robert Saleh to name Mike White the starting quarterback on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Bears quarterback Justin Fields is going to attempt to play with a non-throwing shoulder seperation. He was limited in practice Wednesday and you have to think the gameplan will limit how much Fields will be exposed to the Jets pass rush. We have seen the Bears put up a ton of points in recent weeks, but that could all change and the Bears strictly have Fields handing the ball off.
The game script sets up for heavy running and defense by the Jets who are 6th in defensive DVOA, 8th in yards allowed, 9th in rushing yards allowed, 10th in passing yards, and 9th in points per game allowed. This is a must win game for the Jets who are in the playoff hunt, while the Bears are setting up for 2023. The Jets have played five in a row to the UNDER with only one of those games close to the total.
Jets 20, Bears 13
Bears-Jets NFL Week 12 Best Bet: UNDER 38.5 (DraftKings -110)
Broncos-Panthers (Broncos -1.5, 36)
Another game with a quarterback change as the Panthers will turn to Sam Darnold who has not played in a game since Week 17 last season. Both teams have been offensively challenged to say the least and rely heavily on their defenses to keep games close. One team has nothing to play for and will probably make a coaching change (Broncos) while the Panthers are at least motivated to get interim head coach Steve Wilks a shot to make it permanent.
The Panthers and Broncos are a combined 16-5 to the UNDER in their games with the Broncos at 9-1. The Broncos have played one game in which the score was over 38 points. They are dead last in scoring at 14.7 ppg and 3rd in points allowed 17.1. Even with this season low total of 36, it still feels too high.
Panthers 16, Broncos 13
Broncos-Panthers NFL Week 12 Best Bet: UNDER 36 (DraftKings -110)
Steelers-Colts (Colts -2.5, 39)
Another matchup of teams that struggle on offense but decent on defense. The Colts are 10th in defensive DVOA and the Steelers are 14th (now with TJ Watt back). The Colts are dead last in offensive DVOA and the Steelers are 22nd. The Colts are 2-9 to the UNDER, and 1-4 at home. Both teams are bottom five in points per game which seems to be a theme this week. The Colts have played hard the last two weeks under new head coach Jeff Saturday and the Steelers have also played much better over their last five games going 2-3. Despite their records being 3-7 and 4-6-1, I look for both teams to put forth a strong effort and competitve, but still low scoring game.
Colts 20, Steelers 17
Steelers-Colts NFL Week 12 Best Bet:UNDER 39 (DraftKings)
