One of the biggest things that you can do to be a successful sports bettor is gathering information. But the key is getting the right information, and then knowing what to do with it. Knowing who is betting on what and understanding why is a critical piece of handicapping. That’s especially true in the NFL. This is where knowing the percentage of handle (dollars) compared to bets (amount) comes into play.
The goal of this article is to report on what teams the betting public is most heavy on and then to decide whether or not to follow the “herd” or “fade” them. It will focus on games that have at least 75% of handle or bets.
This article went 3-1 last week, with the lone loss the over on Texans – Colts.
NFL Week 2 Betting Trends & Handles vs. Bet Percentage Plays
Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys (Bengals -7.5, 41.5)
Bengals -7.5: Handle 85%, Bets 85% | Under 41.5: Handle 83% Bets 91%
The world saw the Cowboys get killed on Sunday Night Football and lose Dak Prescott to a thumb injury. The Bengals found every way to NOT win the game at home against the Steelers in Week 1, losing in overtime.
But this game originally opened Dallas -2 and has been adjusted to Cincinnati -7.5. Much like the Panthers – Browns game, this line has been significantly inflated due to Cooper Rush starting at quarterback. The Cowboys should look at controlling the game on the ground and slowing the game down as that is the only shot they have.
Nobody thinks the Cowboys have a chance to compete in this game. That means fade the public here and take the +7.5, hoping that this ends up a very low-scoring game with the Cowboys covering the number.
Best Bet: Cowboys +7.5 — FADE THE PUBLIC
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (Patriots -2, 40)
Steelers +2: Handle 70%, Bets 76% | Under 40: Handle 76%, Bets 80%
This line has all the classic designs of a “trap” play. The public thinks how can the Patriots be favored on the road when the Dolphins blew them out last week and the Steelers beat the Bengals on the road?
But if you look into the box scores on both games you will see that the Dolphins – Patriots game was not as lopsided as the 20-7 score indicates. The Patriots held the Dolphins to 65 rushing yards on 23 carries while losing the turnover battle 3-0. One of the Dolphins’ scores came on a sack/fumble inside the Patriots’ 20, while the interception came in the end zone as the Patriots were going in for a score.
Meanwhile, the Bengals gave the Steelers every chance last week to finally pull out the road win, but the Bengals should have won the game. The Steelers lost their best defensive player in TJ Watt, and Najee Harris is not 100 percent. When you win the turnover battle 5-0, you should win by more than three points and the game should not go to overtime.
Best Bet: Patriots -2 — FADE THE PUBLIC
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (Bills -10, 49)
Bills -10: Handle 82%, Bets 69% | Over 49: Handle 80%, Bets 90%
The Bills showed everyone they deserve to be the Super Bowl favorites with a 31-10 blowout win against the Rams, while the Titans blew a lead and lost at home to the Giants 21-20. The Bills get a few days of extra rest and their record at home over the last two seasons is 16-4 straight up, 12-6-2 against the spread. They average 29 points while allowing 19, so the 10-point line is on point. This is also a double revenge game for the Bills, as the Titans have beaten them at home the last two seasons (42-16, 34-31). An interesting point on the Bills’ defense is that they got seven sacks on the Rams but did not blitz once.
Best Bet: Bills -10 — FOLLOW THE SHARPS (+13% on Handle)
