Week 2 is in the books, so the the NFL Week 3 betting markets are open for early action. Last week’s column featured three winning plays and secured closing line value in two markets. Targeting teams based upon likely injury news proved sharp, so the below early bets on the Packers, Cardinals and Jaguars will follow similar reasoning.
Sharp bettors bet early. Identifying games where future movement seems likely allows bettors to secure closing line value, or CLV, relative to the game’s final spread. Taking a team to cover a 2.5-point spread has a much better chance of hitting than taking that same team to cover even a 3.5-point spread. Bettors can find more value now than they’ll find right before kickoff by digging into the Week 3 NFL betting odds early.
Early NFL Week 3 Predictions & Betting Picks
Packers vs. Buccaneers: Injuries Jeopardize TB’s Edge
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven’t looked that great to start the year. Replacing all three interior offensive linemen was already going to be a challenge, but losing left tackle Donovan Smith has made life even more difficult in the trenches. Guards Luke Goedeke and Shaq Mason currently own PFF grades below 65. Smith’s replacement, Josh Wells, went down with a calf injury and didn’t return. The results weren’t great — New Orleans sacked Tom Brady once and hit him another three times. Running back Leonard Fournette only generated 2.7 yards per carry (YPC) behind his blockers, but his own hamstring injury may account for those struggles.
The Buccaneers are rapidly running out of personnel. Wide receiver Mike Evans is suspended for Week 3 and was already dealing with a calf injury. Smith and Chris Godwin failed to practice at all last week and were ruled out on Friday, so they are questionable at best for Week 3. Three other wideouts, Julio Jones, Breshad Perriman and Russell Gage, were all listed as questionable heading into Week 2, and only the latter two could suit up. The Buccaneers also lost stud defensive lineman Akiem Hicks to a foot injury in Week 2.
Yet Tampa Bay opened as a home favorite over Green Bay. Although the Packers struggled in Week 1, Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones quickly turned things around in Week 2. Wide receiver Allen Lazard and tackle Elgton Jenkins returned to the lineup and made quick impacts. The Packers managed to not lose anyone else to an injury in Week 2 as well. Injury headlines out of Tampa Bay will likely push the moneyline betting odds closer to a pick-’em by kickoff, so head to FanDuel Sportsbook for a deal that won’t last forever.
Packers vs. Buccaneers Prediction: Packers Moneyline (+120) at FanDuel
Rams vs. Cardinals: Murray to Answer the Call of Duty
The Arizona Cardinals almost started their season with consecutive blowout losses to AFC West teams. But Kyler Murray woke up late against the Raiders, and he led Arizona to a thrilling overtime victory. The Cardinals haven’t looked great thus far, but this team isn’t as terrible as it looked in Week 1. Their Week 3 home matchup against the Los Angeles Rams should go a long way to proving that point.
That said, the Los Angeles Rams have their own problems, and fading them in this spot makes sense. The offensive line has struggled without Andrew Whitworth. His replacement, Joe Noteboom, has already surrendered three sacks and owns a PFF grade of just 61.6. Starting center Brian Allen went down with a multi-week injury in Week 1, and his replacement, Tremayne Anchrum Jr., broke his leg in Week 2. As a result, the Rams have given up eight sacks in just two games, and their running backs are averaging a combined 3.2 YPC. Stafford has already thrown four picks and has recorded just 5.4 net yards per attempt (NY/A), well below the 7.36 NY/A he recorded last year.
The Cardinals don’t own a great pass rush now that Chandler Jones is gone, but they have remained aggressive. Arizona blitzed 18 times in Week 1 and pressured Patrick Mahomes on 58.5% of his dropbacks. A similar defensive game plan could spell disaster for Stafford behind a banged-up offensive line. The Rams also may have lost starting cornerback Troy Hill for a few games, so look for the injury headlines to steer sharps toward the Cardinals against the spread.
Rams vs. Cardinals Prediction: Cardinals +4 (-110) at DraftKings
Jaguars vs. Chargers: Jacksonville Playing With Chip
Teams that see their starting quarterback suffer a significant injury rarely open as touchdown favorites the next week. Yet the books have listed the Los Angeles Chargers as 7-point favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars despite the injury to Justin Herbert, who has “a chance” to play through the injury. The star quarterback suffered a fracture to rib cartilage late in Los Angeles’ Week 2 loss but came back into the game late. He went 10-for-14 upon his return, but that included multiple dump-offs to running backs. Herbert completed only two passes to wide receivers and didn’t scramble after the injury.
Unfortunately for Herbert, his Week 3 opponent isn’t a pushover. The Jacksonville Jaguars played the Washington Commanders close in Week 1, then they dominated the Indianapolis Colts in Week 2. Sophomore quarterback Trevor Lawrence completed 83.3% of his passes for 235 yards and two scores. Running backs James Robinson and Travis Etienne Jr. compiled 84 yards on 34 rushing plays as the Jaguars wound down the clock. Jacksonville’s pass rush sacked Matt Ryan five times and hit him another 11 times. The veteran quarterback also threw three picks, bringing Jacksonville to five total interceptions on the year.
Jacksonville’s aggressive pass rush could cause significant problems for Herbert. However, it’s entirely possible that the third-year quarterback doesn’t even play, which would thrust career backup Chase Daniel into the starting job. Such news would immediately crash this spread down closer to a field goal. But even if Herbert isn’t ruled out, news about practice limitations or the availability of star wideout Keenan Allen should move this spread as well. The Jaguars won’t be a touchdown underdog forever, so buy them at +7 while they are.
Jaguars vs. Chargers Prediction: Jaguars +7 (-110) at DraftKings
