The betting lines have remained firm heading into NFL’s Week 6 with point spreads not budging far from where they opened at the start of the week. This would suggest a perfect time to pounce on point spread values before the weekend line movement comes into effect due to the public action. With no game featuring line movement exceeding 1 point thus far the hesitancy in any direction by bettors is evident.
Each week in this article we’ll gauge the NFL betting line movements from Monday through early Friday, keying in on the largest point spread differentials that have taken place in that time and capitalize on the greatest values before the public’s bets come in through the weekend. Being best equipped with the FREE tools at OddsShopper we’ll home in on the best odds available while tracking the line movement throughout the week to tackle the best betting opportunities for NFL Week 6. Given some intriguing matchups featured among those with the greatest spread movement let’s take a deeper look at where the best betting values lie.
Week 6 NFL Betting Line Movement Today: Expert Betting Picks 10/14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers
Game Time: Sunday 10/16, 1:00 pm ET, Acrisure Stadium
Opening Line: PIT +7.5 (-115)
Current Line: PIT +8.5 (-108)
Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) head east following a controversial 21-15 victory over Atlanta last week to wage war with the new look Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4). The point spread opened with the Steelers as +7.5 underdogs later last Sunday, gravitating to +8 on Monday, and since drifting into +8.5 territory during the week where it’s now settled as of Friday. The line movement likely comes in part due to the recent change at quarterback in Pittsburgh with Mitchell Trubisky handing the reins over to rookie Kenny Pickett and since enduring a disastrous 38-3 beatdown to the Buffalo Bills. Though the Bucs failed to cover a double-digit spread against their division rivals last Sunday, the public’s confidence remains with them in this one as 71% of the bets to this point have been on Tampa.
Tampa Bay receiver Julio Jones hasn’t practiced all week with a knee injury while Chris Godwin appears more hopeful to play after logging limited practice on Wednesday prior to a rest day on Thursday. To Brady’s delight the Bucs are looking like they’ll see the return of tight end Cameron Brate with a banged-up receiving corps in need of active starters. With insult to injury (literally and figuratively) the Steelers’ 29th-ranked passing yards allowed may further be hindered by an absence of Minkah Fitzpatrick who hasn’t practiced all week with a knee injury.
Buccaneers at Steelers Lean
While Tampa Bay’s receiving corps could be limited by injury the Bucs’ offense is still very much functional with a versatile backfield intact. The 1-point line movement transpiring through the week simply indicates the understandable lack of confidence in this Steelers team in any facet, now under the offensive guidance of a rookie quarterback, who’s been thrown into the fire. Pittsburgh has a 1-3-1 record against the spread this season and the 8.5 points here doesn’t feel like enough of a buffer against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks sixth in passing yards allowed with 193.4 per game. If Pittsburgh is without Fitzpatrick, this could get uglier than anticipated with Brady looking to silence some critics this Sunday, where I’d recommend securing Tampa Bay’s -8 before the doors blow open into potential double digits over the weekend.
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints
Game Time: Sunday 10/16, 1:00 pm ET, Caesars Superdome
Opening Line: NO +1.0 (-117)
Current Line: NO +2.0 (-110)
The Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) are coming off a 19-17 division loss in Baltimore last Sunday and venture to Joe Burrow‘s old stomping grounds to face the New Orleans Saints (2-3) in Week 6. The point spread opened with the Saints as +1 underdogs, which has since veered into the +2 vicinity since Wednesday. The line movement could be attributed to the uncertainty of quarterback Jameis Winston‘s availability, with 82% of the public action coming in on the Bengals despite the Saints’ convincing offensive display sans Winston in a 39-32 victory over Seattle last Sunday.
Bengals receiver Tee Higgins remains questionable after missing practice both Wednesday and Thursday since missing in action in last Sunday’s loss. Burrow’s protection could be lacking with starting offensive tackle Jonah Williams absent from practice all week as well. While Winston has been limited in practice for the Saints this week, his tandem of back fractures and an ankle injury remain worrisome. Rookie receiver Chris Olave has been limited in practice while in the final stages of concussion protocol following his alarming exit from last Sunday’s win against Seattle while his receiver mate Michael Thomas has been absent all week.
Bengals at Saints Lean
With 1-point line movement in favor of the Bengals during the week we’re still within a field goal between the two teams as Cincinnati is 3-2 against the spread and New Orleans 2-3 against the spread, respectively. The Bengals have come within 3 points in each of their losses, with missed kicks and poor coaching decisions affecting two of those outcomes. New Orleans got creative on offense in their recent win over Seattle and another potential Andy Dalton “revenge” game against his former team, or a hobbled Winston under center, doesn’t bode well against the eighth-ranked Cincinnati defense in takeaways. I’d consider either including the Bengals on a teaser or simply book the -1.5 on Cincinnati before the public begins to factor in.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Game Time: Sunday 10/16, 4:25 pm ET, Arrowhead Stadium
Opening Line: KC +1.0 (-118)
Current Line: KC +3.0 (-120)
A rematch of last season’s AFC Divisional Round 42-36 epic ensues as the Buffalo Bills (4-1) head to Arrowhead Stadium to battle the Kansas City Chiefs (4-1). Though the point spread opened preemptively to Week 5’s outcomes with Kansas City +1 underdogs at heightened juice, the Chiefs moved to +2 as of last Sunday and up to +3 on Tuesday where it’s settled since. The line movement likely stems from the peak prominence of Buffalo’s offense coupled against a questionable Chiefs secondary, although 58% of the public bets are on Kansas City to this point in the week.
Buffalo may see the return of starting safety Jordan Poyer after missing last week’s matchup with Pittsburgh due to a rib injury. The Bills secondary may also regain Christian Benford from a hand injury following a two-game absence further bolstering a Buffalo secondary ranked fourth in passing yards allowed (182.6 per game). On the other hand, Kansas City’s secondary could be without cornerback Rashad Fenton who’s missed practice all week.
Bills at Chiefs Lean
As the betting line since Week 5’s conclusion following the Chiefs’ home win on Monday Night Football has only moved a point in Buffalo’s favor, one could only suspect it will persist into the weekend. The Chiefs rank 23rd in passing yards allowed and are tied for last in passing touchdowns allowed per game (2.4) against a Buffalo offense slinging a league-leading 440.4 passing yards per game and second in passing touchdowns per game (2.8). Buffalo may want revenge, but the Chiefs will keep this close at home. Should the Chiefs proceed to gain points to their advantage, wait until it caps out before grabbing it. Otherwise take the +3 or on a teaser parlay (up to an additional 7 points).
