Six NFL teams might be on a bye this week, reducing the number of players we can hit on the anytime touchdown scorer markets, but we’re jumping in anyway. Our staff has four picks for Week 7, and OddsShopper’s model has identified plenty of other options as well. Here are the players to watch and picks to make on the NFL anytime touchdown betting markets for Week 7, including Josh Allen, for Bills-Patriots and Commanders-Giants.
NFL Week 7 Anytime Touchdown Bets: Picks for Bills-Patriots, Commanders-Giants & More
Commanders-Giants Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Oct. 22 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
Who: Brian Robinson at FanDuel
The Washington Commanders will visit the New York Giants on Sunday, and they’re 3-point road favorites for the matchup. I’m not high on Sam Howell, but I’m far more skeptical of this banged-up Giants roster. New York ranks 31st in expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush attempt, 30th in rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs (7) and 30th in rushing yards allowed to running backs (796). That’s a formula for failure, and we’ve seen the Giants go just 1-5 this year. With multiple key pieces of their offensive line on the injury report, expect New York’s struggles to continue.
Although the Commanders employ a bit of a committee backfield with both Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr. getting work, there is no committee in the red zone. Robinson leads the backfield in carries inside the 20-yard line (13) and inside the five-yard line (5), controlling a 59.1% and 83.3% share, respectively. Robinson also has two red-zone targets, both of which went for touchdowns, while Gibson has just one. In a matchup that both the books and myself expect the Commanders to win, trusting Washington’s goal-line back makes perfect sense.
Commanders-Giants Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Brian Robinson +120 at FanDuel
Raiders-Bears Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Expert: Justin Martin
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Oct. 22 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Soldier Field, Chicago
Who: Davante Adams at DraftKings
Davante Adams has put the Las Vegas Raiders in a tough predicament. He has voiced his displeasure with the organization and its constant state of losing. He doesn’t want to be part of it. They released his college quarterback, Derek Carr, who signed with the New Orleans Saints for a $121 million contract in the off-season, a problem on its own. But we’re here to back Adams, who will be catching passes from veteran Brian Hoyer against the Chicago Bears in Week 7.
This game will be played in Chicago with minimal weather issues. That’s great news for pass catchers, especially Adams, who has a rich history against the Bears dating back to his tenure with the Green Bay Packers. The last time he faced off against the Bears, Adams found the endzone twice, with Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball. It’s a little different with Hoyer at the helm, but Adams is familiar with this stadium and is playing with a chip on his shoulder.
Adams playing displeasured isn’t the only reason we’re backing him to find the end zone on Sunday. The Bears defense is poor, to say the least. They’ve allowed the second-most passing touchdowns in the league and are surrendering the fourth-most yards through the air this season. Look for Hoyer to target Adams early and often. The veteran wideout has been targeted just nine times in his last two games.
Raiders-Bears Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Davante Adams +165 at DraftKings
Bills-Patriots Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Expert: Nathan Joyce
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Oct. 22 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.
Who: Josh Allen at FanDuel
I’m just gonna say it. Was the person setting lines at FanDuel drunk when they hung this Josh Allen anytime touchdown scorer line? I mean, +190? For Josh Allen?!? I bet that faster than my uncle lost his toupee in a hurricane. We’re talking about the 6-foot-5, 240-pound Josh Allen, who loves calling his own number near the goal line. How in the world is this just +190?
Let’s just start and end this by pointing out the fact that the Bills have been in talks with Leonard Fournette about joining the team. And not as depth. As like, a guy who will get real touches. That’s how bad the Bills’ running back situation is. They’re giving Latavius Murray meaningful work, in the year of our lord 2023. If there’s one thing I know, it’s that Josh Allen never passes up a chance to score a rushing score when he has gotten them inside the 10.
Statistically, the Patriots look good at holding quarterbacks to minimal rushing days. But my friends, contrary to the 2011 hit TV show, “Numbers Never Lie,” … numbers do lie. Outside of Jalen Hurts, the quarterbacks New England has faced are all stiffs. And, Hurts ran the ball nine times for 36 yards. What’s more, Allen has rushing touchdowns in three of his last four games. He is, hands down, Buffalo’s best ball carrier near the goal line, and they’ll definitely be looking for a get-right game after a couple of duds since waxing the Dolphins.
I’ve learned over the years that you don’t question a good thing twice: you just smile, nod and say thank you. So, thank you, FanDuel.
Bills-Patriots Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Josh Allen +190 at FanDuel
Falcons-Buccaneers Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Expert: OddsShopper’s Model
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Oct. 22 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.
Who: Jonnu Smith at FanDuel
The Atlanta Falcons will visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, and while the rest of the world is firing up Bijan Robinson bets, OddsShopper’s model wants action on one of Atlanta’s tight ends. And no, it’s not Kyle Pitts — it’s Jonnu Smith. Smith just found paydirt last week against the Commanders. He has recorded four targets inside the 20-yard line and two inside the 10, good for a 16.7% share of both. Let’s dive into why we’re trusting the veteran tight end to find paydirt again.
We have a lot to unpack here. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists Smith’s touchdown odds at +350, but we can find it at odds of +600 at DraftKings. That’s right, +600. OddsShopper’s model works by indexing the odds across the market and generating True Odds by adjusting for hold and the sharpness of each book. It thinks the True Odds of this wager are +539, so lock in the deal at DraftKings before it disappears.
Falcons-Buccaneers Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Jonnu Smith +600 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
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