Betting a quarterback to win Super Bowl MVP is basically like betting the moneyline — as long as the quarterback plays average to above average, the winning team will see their signal-caller hoist the MVP trophy on the podium. But that’s not all that much fun, is it? Was anyone thrilled when Patrick Mahomes won MVP of Super Bowl 54 after two picks and 6.8 yards per attempt? No. Instead, we’re going to look at non-quarterback Super Bowl MVP bets with odds that mitigate the fact that they need to absolutely slay to win it. Without further ado, let’s take a look at some Super Bowl MVP trends and see who fits the bill.
Non-QB Super Bowl MVP Bet: Deebo Samuel, Travis Kelce & More
First things first, we need to see how likely it is for a non-quarterback to win MVP. There have been 57 Super Bowls, and 32 saw a quarterback win MVP — quick math tells us that means 25 have featured a different position taking it home. That’s a pretty friendly trend given basically all non-QBs this year have very long odds. Here’s a full breakdown:
Super Bowl MVP Trends: Non-QB
| Position | No. of Wins | Year of Last Winner (Player) |
|---|---|---|
| Wide Receiver | 8 | 2022 (Cooper Kupp) |
| Running Back | 7 | 1998 (Terrell Davis) |
| Defensive Line* | 3 | 2016 (Von Miller) |
| Inside Linebacker | 3 | 2014 (Malcolm Smith) |
| Defensive Back | 3 | 2003 (Dexter Jackson) |
| Kick Returner | 1 | 1997 (Desmond Howard) |
| Tight End | 0 | N/A |
Non-QB Super Bowl MVP Odds
| Player | Odds | Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | +475 | DraftKings |
| Travis Kelce | +1700 | FanDuel |
| Deebo Samuel | +2500 | BetMGM |
| Isiah Pacheco | +3500 | FanDuel |
| Brandon Aiyuk | +6000 | DraftKings |
| Rashee Rice | +7000 | FanDuel |
| George Kittle | +8000 | BetMGM |
| Nick Bosa | +10000 | FanDuel |
| Chris Jones | +14000 | FanDuel |
Christian McCaffrey having the shortest odds by far makes sense. The last non-quarterback to win Super Bowl MVP, Cooper Kupp in 2022, had a similarly historic regular season and therefore had narrative to go along with his team’s win, and Kupp made huge play after huge play. There is certainly a world where McCaffrey has a similar game. But there are some trends working against him.
This should not be a surprise, but no running back has won Super Bowl MVP in the 21st century: Three won in the 1990s, two in the ’80s and two in the ’70s. McCaffrey is obviously a strong candidate to change that since he is the only non-quarterback on either team virtually guaranteed 20-ish touches and he had multiple touchdowns in both 49er playoff games this year.
However, if we’re searching for value by targeting a non-quarterback MVP, why not go for some better odds than McCaffrey’s +475?
Pass catcher seems like the obvious route, and there are three solid options: Travis Kelce, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Sure, tight end has never won Super Bowl MVP before, but few participating tight ends have ever had even a fraction of the receiving impact Kelce does. He probably has the smoothest path to winning if for no other reason than the bar he has to clear is probably lower than the others’ — we all know why, and it’s not football related. Samuel or Aiyuk, meanwhile, will have to put on a clinic while the other has a modest game AND Brock Purdy does not put up huge numbers.
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That is certainly in play given Purdy’s playoff performances have been pedestrian so far, and a good portion of the football-watching community seems to be champing at the bit to discredit Purdy’s role in the 49ers offense. Still, Kupp needed eight catches for 92 yards and two touchdowns to take the award from a good-not-great Matthew Stafford game in 2022. That type of line seems more like Samuel territory; Aiyuk was second in the NFL in yards per target and yards per reception, so splash plays are a better avenue to MVP numbers for him.
However, last week proved once again that, no matter the season Kelce has (he was below his standards this year), Patrick Mahomes is going to look to him in big games. That is especially true now that the Chiefs wide receiver room is basically Rashee Rice and no one else. And even when Mahomes had more options, he looked Kelce’s way in past Super Bowls — Kelce has 22 catches for 257 yards and two touchdowns across three trips to the Big Game.
With more fans rooting for him than ever before, a second straight 10-plus-catch game could make Kelce a lock for at least a top-2 finish, and eight-ish receptions for 100 yards and a key touchdown (or thereabouts) also gets him into the discussion. These are well within the range of outcomes, and if Mahomes is average beyond his Kelce targets, +1700 is strong odds for the tight end to win out.
Sure, this isn’t the most off-the-wall thinking, but Kelce over McCaffrey would be a reasonable play if their odds were identical. With Kelce so much longer a shot, this is the value play.
Best Non-Quarterback Super Bowl MVP Bet: Travis Kelce +1700 (FanDuel)
