The New England Patriots dropped their season finale to the Miami Dolphins last year, ending their hopes at a division title. They’ll enter this year seeking revenge — but they may not have the talent necessary to do it.
The Dolphins replenished their roster by stacking the offensive line and receiving corps. Even those skeptical of the Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa should predict a solid performance from their passing game against the Patriots.
Miami added Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson at receiver. They added guard Connor Williams and tackle Terron Armstead in the trenches. Miami should be a playoff contender if everything works out — not it’s just a question of meeting expectations.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Week 1 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Patriots vs. Dolphins Betting Odds
After Efficient Year, New England Offense Must Improve Again
The 2021 New England Patriots exceeded expectations. After losing Tom Brady before the 2020 season, the Patriots collapsed to a dismal 7-9 record. The team then drafted rookie quarterback Mac Jones in the first round, and he helped the team return to its winning ways. New England finished with a 10-7 record, coming in just one game behind the division-winning Buffalo Bills. But with the Miami Dolphins making several big off-season upgrades, Jones and the Patriots must improve to keep up.
Jones and the New England offense were efficient last year. Jones finished with a respectable 6.48 net yards per attempt (NY/A) and enters the year with an Elo rating of 144. The Patriots ranked ninth in offensive DVOA behind the 10th-best passing offense and seventh-best rushing offense. Jones generated the 12th-most defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR). Two of his running backs, Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, ranked top 20 in generating DYAR. Hunter Henry generated the fifth-most DYAR among tight ends. That said, New England's leading wide receiver in DYAR -- including new add DeVante Parker -- was Kendrick Bourne, who has apparently regressed and stumbled down the depth chart. No other New England wideout ranked top 50 in the metric.
The Patriots return a solid offensive line and rushing defense, but their secondary should be exploitable. Star cornerback J.C. Jackson left for Los Angeles. Malcolm Butler, who the Patriots brought back to replace him, injured his hip in the preseason and landed on injured reserve. That leaves New England with Jalen Mills and a question mark at outside cornerback. The Patriots may have to play slot cornerback Jonathan Jones on the outside, which would create a mismatch for any big-bodied receiver. As a result, the offense may need to compensate for a more beatable defense.
It's Now or Never for Tagovailoa
The Miami Dolphins won the offseason. That may not translate to regular-season success, but few teams made bigger strides than the Dolphins. Miami brought in a new head coach, Mike McDaniel, but kept their previous defensive coordinator, Josh Boyer, to ease the transition. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa now has Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson to target, and running back Chase Edmonds is a proven contributor in the passing game. Left tackle Terron Armstead and center Connor Williams came over in free agency and should help turn Miami's league-worst offensive line into an actual contender.
The Dolphins needed to invest more in Tagovailoa's supporting cast after last season. He is on an upward trend since joining the league in 2020 -- he improved his NY/A from 5.4 to 6.1 and lowered his sack rate from 6.5% to 4.9% despite the poor offensive line play. He raised his completion percentage from 64.1% to 67.8% but lowered his TD/INT ratio from 11-5 to 8-5. But other than Jaylen Waddle, Tagovailoa had no real targets who posed a genuine threat. Those numbers could keep trending upward after Miami's impressive offseason.
Miami's front office smartly chose to retain Boyer. His defense ranked 10th in DVOA last year. Cornerback Xavien Howard and the secondary ranked ninth against the pass. Breakout safety Jevon Holland recorded an elite PFF grade of 84.7 as well. Miami added veteran Melvin Ingram to its pass rush and retained all three starters in the trenches, but their run defense ranked only 17th in DVOA last year. Barring an unlikely defensive collapse, Tagovailoa will take the blame if Miami can't improve on its 9-8 record from last season.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction
New Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel comes over from the San Francisco 49ers. He worked as the team's offensive coordinator last year after a four-season stint as the running game coordinator. The 49ers ranked second-to-last in pass attempts per game with McDaniel calling the shots last year. I expect him to bring that style of playcalling to Miami.
Miami paid new running back Chase Edmonds to a two-year, $12 million contract in the offseason. He averaged 49.3 yards rushing and 25.9 yards receiving per game in his final year with the Cardinals. While Edmonds will likely have to split work with Raheem Mostert, the Dolphins should give him a solid amount of volume on Sunday -- and he should be efficient on those touches. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry and 7.2 yards per reception. With multiple books posting his total for rushing and receiving yards at 59.5 or 60.5, head to FanDuel for an off-market number.
Best NFL Bet: Chase Edmonds Over 56.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-114) at FanDuel
