Once two of the NFC’s best franchises, the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints have combined for a 6-13 record this year. Both teams rank last in their respective divisions. With the Rams now without star wide receiver Cooper Kupp, New Orleans is a 2.5-point home favorite in the NFL odds. Bettors looking for a positive return on this matchup should tail the Rams-Saints prediction and pick — or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp bets.
NFL Odds: Rams-Saints Odds
Rams Need a New Offensive Line
Not much has gone right for the Los Angeles Rams this season. They find themselves on a three-game losing skid after falling to the 49ers, Buccaneers and Cardinals. At 3-6, they'll have a hard time re-entering the NFC West race, especially with Cooper Kupp now on injured reserve. The Rams rank a dismal 28th in total defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and are a bottom-five team in expected points added (EPA) per play.
Even with Kupp and Matthew Stafford healthy, the Rams have struggled on offense. They rank 32nd in yards per play (4.7). Their rushing offense has averaged only 3.2 yards per attempt, which ranks 31st, and 68.1 yards per game, which ranks 32nd. Their offensive line ranks 32nd in adjusted line yards and 30th in run-block win rate.
Stafford's 5.52 net yards per attempt (NY/A) ranks only 29th among 35 quarterbacks to have attempted at least 125 passes. His offensive line hasn't helped -- the unit ranks 24th in pass-block win rate and 22nd in adjusted sack rate. Stafford has faced pressure on 24.3% of his dropbacks. Not even offensive mastermind Sean McVay can overcome an inability to block in the trenches.
Despite their offensive struggles, the Rams have looked like an average defensive team. They rank 15th in defensive DVOA and 10th in yards allowed per play. The Rams have stuffed opposing rushing offenses for only 3.9 yards per attempt, which ranks third, and 96.1 yards per game, which ranks fourth. But since their pass rush ranks a lowly 31st in pressure percentage (13.3%), opposing quarterbacks have cut them up for 6.4 yards per pass attempt, which ranks a less impressive 12th.
Turnovers Badly Hurting the Saints
This year's New Orleans Saints have continued the downward trend that started in Drew Brees' last season as a full-time quarterback. The Saints rank a lowly 25th in total DVOA and are well below average in EPA per play. Hemorrhaging defensive talent over the last two seasons has taken its toll, and the once-strong New Orleans defense ranks around the league average.
But the defense doesn't deserve most of the blame for the Saints' struggles -- the turnover-prone offense does. The Saints rank 23rd in offensive DVOA but seventh in yards per play (5.8). Quarterback Andy Dalton has completed a solid 65% of his throws, which ranks 16th, for 6.57 NY/A, which ranks eighth. The Saints have struggled to win games because Dalton ranks 32nd in interception frequency (3.2%), which has contributed to the Saints ranking 31st in giveaways per game (1.9).
The Saints have demonstrated that they can win games if their offense doesn't turn the ball over. They rank a solid 12th in yards per rush attempt (4.8) and 15th in rushing yards per game (120.7). Their offensive line ranks ninth in adjusted line yards and 13th in run-block win rate. The offensive line has also protected Dalton well -- he has faced pressure on only 13.3% of his dropbacks, and the unit ranks ninth in pass-block win rate.
New Orleans' defense has struggled to compensate for the offense with the talent it has available. The Saints rank a respectable 16th in defensive DVOA and 11th in yards allowed per play (5.2). The passing defense has held opposing quarterbacks to only 6.3 yards per attempt, which ranks ninth, despite the pass rush generating pressure on only 18% of dropbacks, which ranks 28th. That said, the rushing defense ranks a lowly 20th in yards allowed per attempt (4.6) and 22nd in yards allowed per game (130.5).
Final Rams-Saints Prediction & Pick
How will the Rams play without Kupp? The slot wideout hasn't missed a game in the Matthew Stafford era. He last sat out in a playoff game against the Green Bay Packers that saw the since-departed Josh Reynolds and Robert Woods lead the Rams in receiving. The books aren't sure, either -- Allen Robinson, Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee all own increased receiving yardage prop totals set in the 40s.
Notably, Caesars has set Jefferson's receiving yardage prop to only 37.5, which sets well below the standard market price of 40.5. The book hasn't even stacked the juice on the over. Although Jefferson is yet to surpass this number in 2022, he just returned to the Rams three weeks ago, and he had fallen behind Robinson in the depth chart. With Kupp gone, Jefferson should jump up significantly in the pecking order.
Bettors would be wise to remember that Jefferson averaged 5.2 targets and 47.2 receiving yards per game last year. He beat this number in 11 of his 17 regular-season appearances as well. Although it's risky to target a receiver who is still working his way back into the offense, Jefferson has earned eight targets on 28 routes run over the last two weeks (28.5% target rate). Robinson has earned 11 on 53 (20.7% target rate). Play the off-market number and hope Sean McVay trusts Jefferson with an increased role on Sunday.
Final Rams-Saints Pick: Van Jefferson Over 37.5 (-103) at Caesars
Rams-Saints Prediction OddsShopper Model
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