An AFC South division battle between the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans likely won’t catch a lot of attention this week with a 40.5 projected point total. However, even with the low total, there is still an edge in this game that we can exploit in the betting markets. The Titans have won four straight games and have taken the AFC South lead by one game over the Indianapolis Colts and are now -140 to win the division. Let’s dive into our Texans-Titans prediction. Check out our OddsShopper tool for the best NFL bets.
The red-hot Titans (4-2) have won 10 of their last 11 games against AFC South opponents and are 2.5-point road favorites against the Texans (1-4-1). Being less than a field goal favorite, this line feels a little short, but let’s dive in and find the right bet to take for this slugfest.
Texans-Titans Predictions, Picks & Week 8 Betting Odds
Let Derrick Henry Cook
It isn’t quite “Dehember” yet, but Titans running back Derrick Henry is starting to round into form as he has rushed for over 100 yards in three straight games. The focal point in this offense is running the ball early and often with Henry. They rank dead last in pace this season, while Henry ranks first in rush attempts per game (22.3) entering this week. He had a season-high 30 attempts last week in a 19-10 victory over the Colts.
Veteran Ryan Tannehill continues to get by with below average performances but is obviously the best quarterback at handing the ball off to Henry and managing the game. Through six games, Tannehill ranks 24th in QBR and 29th in passing yards per game. He was a limited participant in practice Thursday, but he’ll find a way to suit up. Normally Tannehill can utilize his legs in the running game, but the 34-year-old is averaging a career-low 1.5 yards per carry this season.
The departure of wide receivers A.J. Brown and even Julio Jones in the offseason left this receiving corps very depleted. Rookies Treylon Burks and Kyle Phillips are on the IR, and newly acquired Robert Woods has led the Titans receivers in receptions, targets and yards this season. The passing attempts for Tannehill have barely crept over 20 in recent games, so it is tough to expect much from this aerial attack. They run the ball at the fifth-most rate.
It has been a rough season to be a tight end for the Titans. In his first year with them, Austin Hooper leads the group with only nine receptions and 14 targets. He has yet to catch a touchdown after reaching paydirt at least three times in each of his six seasons. Even with Burks and Phillips not playing, this tight end group rarely catches the eye of Tannehill.
The Titans beg the question: With such an inept quarterback and passing attack, how are they winning football games? The answer: in the trenches. They rank third in defensive Rush DVOA this season, while Henry is starting to cook, and he has dominated the Texans recently. Over his last three games in this matchup, Henry is averaging 224.3 rushing yards on 29.3 carries per game, including seven touchdowns. Yeah, it’s about to be “Dehember.”
Can the Texans Stay Competitive?
The Texans came out of the gates very competitive and have held their own through the first quarter of the season. They have only one loss that is more than 10 points and that came last week against the Raiders. There are not many winnable games left on their schedule, but being only 2.5-point home underdogs this week, it wouldn’t surprise anyone if the Texans won this game outright. They shocked the Jaguars two weeks ago, winning on the road.
It hasn’t taken long for Dameon Pierce to prove he is one of the best running backs in this rookie class. Over the last four games, Pierce is averaging 100.5 rushing yards per game with three touchdowns. Veteran Rex Burkhead has taken a backseat with only eight rushing attempts in the last five games after getting 14 in the season opener. Pierce has arrived, but this is a brutal matchup against one of the best rush defenses in the NFL.
In his second year in the league, QB Davis Mills has taken every snap for the Texans this season. Mills has struggled more this year than last year with a 63.8% completion rate and has thrown seven touchdowns to five interceptions. Despite being a non-factor in the running game, Mills has been sacked 13 times, and last week was the first game all season when he surpassed 300 passing yards. Like Tannehill, it’s tough to get behind Mills as a weapon in the passing game.
For some reason, wide receiver Brandin Cooks has yet to find a new home. With Mills at the helm, Cooks has yet to top 85 receiving yards in any game this season and only has one touchdown. Second-year wide receiver Nico Collins leads the team in receiving yards with 305 but is listed as questionable with an injury. Cooks may see an increased target share, but those targets from Mills haven’t been very catchable this season.
This game will come down to the running backs from both sides. However, with Henry as the superior option and the Texans ranking last in Rush DVOA allowing 5.2 yards per carry, the Titans may literally run away with this one.
Final Texans-Titans Prediction and Pick
Honestly, a single-game parlay that features a Titans win, the under, and Derrick Henry over 92.5 rushing yards feels like the best way to attack this game. Not only have the Titans won their last four games, but they have covered the spread in each game. Henry is clicking on all cylinders and gets a great matchup on the ground. Lastly, with both teams running the ball at a high rate and most of their production coming on the ground, expect this to go under the total.
For this article, we’ll do one bet and that will be taking the Titans at -2.5 on the road.
Final Texans-Titans Pick: Tennessee Titans -2.5 (-110) at DraftKings
