The 5-2 New York Jets have a home matchup against the 3-4 New England Patriots in Week 8, yet a quick look at the NFL odds reveals that the Jets are underdogs — and by a decent margin. With the Patriots sticking with quarterback Mac Jones, bettors should head to DraftKings Sportsbook to tail these Patriots-Jets prediction and picks. They can also check our OddsShopper tool for other value picks.
NFL Odds: Patriots-Jets Odds
Don't Expect More Quarterback Drama in New England
These aren't Tom Brady's New England Patriots. After Mac Jones struggled early against the Chicago Bears, Bill Belichick opted to let Bailey Zappe take over under center -- only for him to complete only 63.2% of his passes and toss two interceptions. The Patriots scored on Zappe's first two drives but totaled 77 net yards afterward. Still, the Patriots look like at least an average team. They rank 16th in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and are comfortably above average in expected points added (EPA) per play.
New England's offense has looked solid but unspectacular. The Patriots rank 23rd in offensive DVOA but ninth in yards per play (5.8). Whether led by Damien Harris or Rhamondre Stevenson, the running game has been solid -- the Patriots rank 19th in yards per rush attempt (4.4) but 12th in rushing yards per game (122.6). Quarterback Mac Jones has completed a solid 65% of his passes, which ranks 17th among 36 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts, for 7.04 net yards per attempt (NY/A), which ranks seventh. Jones has often opted to take downfield looks, as his 10.3 intended air yards per attempt (IAY/A) ranks second. This has come at the expense of accuracy -- Jones ranks only 32nd in on-target throw percentage (68.6%).
New England's defense has played relatively well. The Patriots rank ninth in defensive DVOA and 14th in yards allowed per play (5.4). The Patriots haven't been great against the run, as they rank 26th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.9) and 25th in rushing yards allowed per game (136.7). They have proven especially vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks, as they have given up an NFL-high 29.1 rushing yards per game to the position. Matchups against Lamar Jackson, who ran for 107 yards, and Justin Fields, who ran for 82, haven't helped. At least the secondary ranks eighth in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.3) and the pass rush ranks third in pressure percentage (27.5%).
New York's Offensive Line is in Shambles
The Jets started the season hot. Backup quarterback Joe Flacco got a win over the Cleveland Browns, Zach Wilson is undefeated since returning to the lineup. But last week's season-ending injuries to starting tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker and running back Breece Hall could doom this team. The Jets were already without tackles Mehki Becton, Max Mitchell and George Fant, so they're down to just banged-up veteran Duane Brown and underperforming journeymen Mike Remmers and Cedric Ogbuehi.
Further, Wilson's 4-0 record as a starter overstates both his performance and New York's. The Jets rank just 21st in offensive DVOA and 22nd in yards per play (5.1) -- yet Wilson has completed only 57.4% of his passes, which ranks 33rd, for only 5.86 NY/A, which ranks 24th. Wilson will likely face more pressure moving forward, which will become a problem -- he has completed 13% of his passes under pressure thus far, which ranks 36th. He completed only 23% of his passes under pressure last year as well. That said, Wilson has scrambled seven times for seven yards per attempt this year.
It's New York's defense that has truly carried this team. The unit ranks 10th in defensive DVOA and sixth in yards allowed per play (4.9). The Jets have stuffed opposing rushers, as they rank third in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.9) and 11th in rushing yards allowed per game (105.3). They rank seventh in yards allowed per pass attempt (6) and 12th in pressure percentage (23.7%) despite ranking 31st in blitz rate (14.8%). Let's dig into our final Patriots-Jets prediction.
Final Patriots-Jets Prediction & Pick
Bettors who tailed the early bets column got the Patriots at -125 on the moneyline. That number has since moved to -140 or worse across the market. While that number still offers value, bettors can get a better return by constructing a same-game parlay that also fades Zach Wilson.
Wilson is averaging 173.3 passing yards per game this year. He has averaged only 178.1 passing yards per game over his 17-start career as well. Given New England's third-ranked pass rush, New York's tattered offensive line and Wilson's struggles to complete passes under pressure, fading both Wilson and the Jets feels sharp. Wilson just faced the NFL's fourth- and fifth-ranked pass rushes and averaged 115.5 passing yards per game across those starts. Bettors should tease the line for Wilson's total passing yards all the way up to 224.5 and pair it with the New England moneyline.
Final Patriots-Jets Pick: Patriots Moneyline + Zach Wilson Under 224.5 Passing Yards (+125) at DraftKings
Patriots-Jets OddsShopper Model Prediction
OddsShopper's industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props -- and even quarter- or half-based derivatives! Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model's predictions and best bets for each game. For the Week 8 Patriots-Jets matchup, the model has identified a New York receiver as a player to target at his current price.
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