The Pittsburgh Steelers roll into the month of November at 4-2, far better than what many expected for this roster. They’ll play the Tennessee Titans this week, who come in at 3-4 but with positive momentum now that rookie quarterback Will Levis is at the helm. But can Levis replicate his four-touchdown performance from Week 8, or was it an outlier? Let’s dive into the best Titans-Steelers player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Thursday Night Football. Check out OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Titans-Steelers Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Thursday Night Football
Thursday Night Football Odds
Odds via bet365
Titans: +130 | Steelers: -150
Titans +2.5: -105 | Steelers -2.5: -115
Over 36.5: -110 | Under 36.5: -110
Time: Thursday, Nov. 2 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Titans-Steelers Player Prop Pick
Will Levis Prop O/U 0.5 Interceptions
How about that? Rookie quarterback Will Levis came off the bench to throttle the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8. He completed 65.5% of his passes for 224 net yards and four touchdowns. That makes him the team’s new franchise quarterback, right? Hold your horses. He beat up on a sketchy Atlanta pass rush that ranks only 28th in pass-rush win rate (35%). He now must face the 14th-ranked Steelers (45%), and he’ll have to do it on the road and while coming off a short week. That isn’t a recipe for success if you’re a rookie quarterback.
I’m fading Levis in this spot, but not in the way you might think. His star wide receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, is now questionable after failing to practice on Wednesday. Hopkins was listed as a limited participant in the two prior practice sessions. Hopkins’ absence would be a big deal — the veteran wideout accounted for six of Levis’ targets (22.2%) and 128 of his total passing yards (53.8%). If Hopkins can’t go or is limited to a handful of snaps, Levis will have to face an aggressive pass rush that blitzes at the NFL’s fourth-highest rate (38.7%) without his most trusted target. Rookie quarterbacks make bad decisions when put in tough spots, so look for Levis to throw at least one pick on Thursday. The best odds for this wager are available at bet365. If you’re yet to sign up with them, you can get $150 after placing a $5 wager — or get your first bet back as a bonus bet worth up to $1,000 if it loses!
Titans-Steelers Player Prop Pick: Will Levis Over 0.5 Interceptions -145 at bet365
Titans-Steelers Model Player Prop
Najee Harris O/U 45.5 Rushing Yards
Now that my pick is out of the way, let’s see what OddsShopper’s model has to say about this game. It wants action on Najee Harris despite his unremarkable start to the season. Harris is averaging only 45.3 rushing yards per game, which is slightly less than what he needs to cash the over, but we’re getting solid enough odds to warrant a wager here.
The Titans were known for their stingy run defense last year, but they have been much less effective in 2023. Tennessee ranks only 16th in run stop win rate (31%) this year. The Titans have also allowed 83.7 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Bijan Robinson ripped off 62 rushing yards on just 11 carries despite a negative game script last week.
So the model likes this play. How does it work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV. And yes, it’s profitable — just look at some results!
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Titans-Steelers Player Prop: Najee Harris Over 45.5 Rushing Yards +105 at DraftKings
Titans-Steelers Anytime Touchdown Scorer
I am profoundly unexcited by the anytime touchdown scorer markets for this game. I would probably have considered buying “No Touchdown Scorer,” if this weren’t a Thursday night game, but with both defenses coming in off limited rest, I just can’t pull the trigger on it — no matter how appealing the 35-1 odds may be. Instead, I’m going to keep things simple and trust Pittsburgh’s primary running back, Najee Harris, whom you’ll find priced as long as +180.
Harris hasn’t been effective this season, but he remains Pittsburgh’s best option in the red zone. The Steelers have attempted only 13 rushing plays inside the 20-yard line, which is terrible, but Harris was the recipient of the ball on six (46.2%) of those snaps. More importantly, Harris has four of the team’s six rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line (66.7%). Harris has found paydirt just once all season, but he also started last year slowly in the touchdown column — Harris scored 10 total touchdowns last year, seven of which came in November or later.
Titans-Steelers Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Najee Harris +180 at DraftKings
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