The NFL playoffs have nearly arrived, and with so much of the season in the rear-view mirror, the sportsbooks have started to craft sharper and sharper betting lines. While it can be difficult to find an edge on NFL betting markets late in the year, the following top NFL Week 15 predictions should offer a positive return. Bettors can tail them or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
Top NFL Week 15 Betting Predictions & Picks
Lions-Jets Prediction: Fade the Lions in the Meadowlands
The Detroit Lions have built some momentum. They played the Buffalo Bills close on Thanksgiving then rolled over the Jaguars and Vikings. However, all three of those games came at their home stadium, the domed Ford Field. Jared Goff must now return to a hostile road environment — and the cold outdoors.
No team has more flagrant home-away splits than the Detroit Lions. They have averaged 13.7 fewer points per game when playing on the road. Goff has only thrown two touchdown passes on the road to four interceptions. His last cold-weather, outdoor game came against the New York Giants, and he threw for only 165 yards and no touchdowns in that contest.
Goff and the Lions face an aggressive New York pass rush on Sunday afternoon. The Jets rank eighth in pressure percentage (23.7%). Meanwhile, Goff hs completed only 23.8% of his passes under pressure, which ranks 35th. The Jets may not have the services of defensive tackle Quinnen Williams on Sunday, but they have the benefit of a deep defensive roster and a sharp defensive head coach.
Lions-Jets Prediction: Lions Team Total Under 21.5 (-115) at DraftKings
Cardinals-Broncos Prediction: Plug Your Nose and Back Denver
The Denver Broncos may not be fun to watch, but their defense remains a force to be reckoned with. Denver’s defense ranks an impressive fifth in both defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and expected points added (EPA) per dropback (-0.08), one of the few defenses with a negative number in the metric.
Both the Broncos and Cardinals will start their backup quarterbacks on Sunday. Colt McCoy has usually played serviceable for Arizona, but he ranks a miserable 43rd among 55 quarterbacks to have played at least 25 snaps in adjusted EPA per dropback (-0.11). Denver’s backup, Brett Rypien, isn’t far behind in 48th (-0.14). However, Rypien will face an Arizona defense that ranks only 17th in EPA per dropback (0.08) and 25th in passing yards allowed per game (243.8).
Although Rypien won’t have the benefit of Courtland Sutton or Kendall Hinton, he should get enough from Jerry Jeudy and Greg Dulcich to get the Broncos on the scoreboard. The Cardinals have even allowed a season-high 950 receiving yards to tight ends this year, which should give Dulcich a pretty massive boost that Rypien can exploit.
Cardinals-Broncos Prediction: Broncos Moneyline (-125 for 1.25 Units) at BetMGM
Editor Note: No matter what top NFL Week 15 betting predictions you like — whether it’s our Cardinals-Broncos prediction, Giants-Commanders prediction, Lions-Jets prediction or one not mentioned here — FanDuel is currently running a variety of promos which allows bettors to find value in varying ways and different sorts of plays.
Giants-Commanders Prediction: A Spread/Total Parlay Looks Sharp
The Washington Commanders tied with the New York Giants two weeks ago, and they got a full week off to game plan for the rematch. The Giants weren’t so lucky — they had to face the division-leading Philadelphia Eagles last week. Now Daniel Jones and company must make the short trip south to FedEx Field with their playoff odds hanging in the balance.
Both of these teams feature slow, run-heavy offenses. The Commanders rank 22nd in seconds per play (29.5) and 11th in rushing-play percentage (45.5%). Likewise, the Giants rank 15th in seconds per play (28.6) and sixth in rushing-play percentage (49.1%). Washington even leads the NFL in average time of possession (33:03).
These teams combined for exactly 40 points in their last meeting. They miraculously stayed under the closing total of 40.5 despite overtime. Both teams benefited from at least one drive that began in the opposing team’s territory due to turnovers. Expect turnover variance to help make this game another low-scoring affair and target the Giants to keep this within a double-digit margin.
Giants-Commanders Prediction: Giants +10.5/Under 45.5 (+110) at BetMGM
