Vikings-Bengals Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet for Saturday (Dec. 16)

Vikings-Bengals Odds for Saturday

Odds via bet365
Vikings: +145 | Bengals: -170
Vikings +3: +100 | Bengals -3: -120
Over 40.5: -110 | Under 40.5: -110
Time: Saturday, Dec. 16 at 1 p.m. ET

Vikings-Bengals Player Prop Pick

Nick Mullens O/U 246.5 Passing Yards

Jordan Addison, Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson form an electric cast of receivers with which quarterback Nick Mullens will get to work. The Minnesota Vikings have also already ruled out running back Alexander Mattison.

It’s safe to expect a heavy dose of passing plays from head coach Kevin O’Connell — even in Mullens’ first start under center. This year, O’Connell’s Vikings have passed 62.2% of the time. They passed 64.4% of the time last year.

Now that you’ve read about my pick, let’s turn to what OddsShopper’s model wants action on. It recommends targeting Joe Mixon on the rushing attempts market because of a big odds disparity between DraftKings Sportsbook and the rest of the rest of the market. You’ll find the under 14.5 priced at +105 (48.8%) on DraftKings but at -115 or so (54.5%) almost everywhere else. Even the true odds point to value at the price of -105 (51.2%).

How does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. And yes, it’s profitable — just look at Greg Ehrenberg’s betting results!

So who finds paydirt in Saturday’s Vikings-Bengals game? I trust tight end T.J. Hockenson to do so. While he now must contend with Justin Jefferson for targets, Hockenson’s red-zone volume is quite impressive — and he slots in at odds of +240 (%) to find paydirt at bet365.

Hockenson makes a great anytime touchdown scorer pick for the simple reason that he sees a ton of targets inside the 10-yard line. Of Minnesota’s 35 pass attempts that close to the goal line, seven have gone to the veteran tight end.

Jefferson hasn’t caught on as a red-zone scorer for Minnesota this year. He has just three targets inside the 10-yard line on the season, far fewer than the 19 he recorded last season — most of which he put up without Hockenson even in town.

Lastly, Mullens also has experience throwing to tight ends in goal-to-go situations. Of his 15 touchdown passes inside the 10-yard line, seven went to fullbacks or tight ends. Another four of his 27 total scores went to tight ends as well.