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Vikings vs. Dolphins Betting Odds & Prediction: Books Not Favoring Minnesota Enough (October 16)

For better or worse, the Miami Dolphins intend to start rookie Skylar Thompson under center this weekend. Even if Teddy Bridgewater can suit up, head coach Mike McDaniel said that Bridgewater would back up Thompson. The sportsbooks now predict the Vikings will earn a close road win over the Dolphins on Sunday.

The Vikings come into Sunday’s matchup after a near-loss to the Bears. Fortunately, late-game heroics from Kirk Cousins saved the day, and Minnesota escaped with a win. The experience difference at quarterback could end up determining this matchup, especially because Thompson struggled against the Jets.

 

Vikings vs. Dolphins Week 6 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions

Vikings vs. Dolphins Betting Odds

Minnesota Rolling Offensively, Floundering Defensively

The 4-1 Minnesota Vikings are worse than their record suggests. They got lucky against the Packers, as both starting tackles and top wide receiver Allen Lazard missed that game. They then took a beating against the Eagles only to narrowly win their next three games, which came against the Lions, Saints and Bears. The team ranks 20th in total defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) led by their 11th-ranked offense.

Minnesota's offense deserves plenty of credit. The unit ranks 13th in yards per play (5.5) under new head coach Kevin O'Connell, whose pass-heavy offense ranks sixth in passing play percentage (63.4%). Quarterback Cousins has thrived in O'Connell's scheme. He has completed 66.2% of his passes, which ranks 11th, for 6.12 net yards per attempt (NY/A), which ranks 20th. Cousins also ranks fifth in on-target throw percentage (79.5%). However, the veteran quarterback has struggled under pressure. His offensive line has allowed him to face pressure on 24.4% of his dropbacks, which ranks 13th-highest, and Cousins has completed only 36.6% of his passes when pressured.

The Vikings have struggled on defense. The unit ranks 28th in defensive DVOA and 26th in yards allowed per play (6). Minnesota has performed closer to the league average against the run than against the pass, as the Vikings rank 15th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.4) but 29th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.8). Both the pass rush and secondary are to blame. Minnesota's pass rushers have pressured opposing quarterbacks on only 19.7% of their dropbacks, which ranks ninth-lowest, and the secondary has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70% of their passes, which ranks second.

 

Miami Likely Doomed With Thompson Starting

The limited data sample on Thompson makes handicapping Sunday's game somewhat difficult but not impossible. For instance, FiveThirtyEight's quarterback-adjusted Elo forecast favors Minnesota by a full 5.5 points, but the unadjusted forecast favors Miami by 1.5. The books have come down against Miami's side of the equation by favoring Minnesota by a full field goal.

Thompson and the Dolphins struggled in his NFL debut. The third-string quarterback had to relieve Bridgewater almost immediately, then completed 57.5% of his passes for 158 net yards, no scores and one interception. His 4.51 NY/A would rank last among all quarterbacks to have made at least three starts this season. Miami leaned on the running game but never caught back up with New York. Although Thompson struggled, a full week of game planning with Thompson should help the Dolphins better integrate star wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The duo combined for only 70 receiving yards despite ranking second and fifth in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) this season.

Miami's defense hasn't looked good this year. Although the Dolphins rank a solid 19th in total DVOA, their defense ranks just 29th in defensive DVOA. Miami has given up 6.1 yards per play, which ranks fourth-worst. Like the Vikings, the Dolphins have fared better against the run than the pass. They rank 29th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.9) but ninth in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.1). While Miami's defensive front has been able to stuff opposing rushers as it ranks fourth in line yards, it hasn't pressured opposing quarterbacks. The Dolphins rank third-worst in pressure rate (14.3%).

Vikings vs. Dolphins Prediction

On paper, the Cousins-led Vikings are more than three points better than the Thompson-led Dolphins. But the Dolphins will benefit from both the home crowd and Miami's heat and humidity, and the Vikings have gone only 1-4 against the spread this year, so Minnesota has only drawn a field-goal advantage. Bettors shouldn't let those factors sway them away from fading a team down to their unproven, third-string quarterback.

The books have started to stack the juice on the -3, which bettors who tailed the early NFL bets column would have avoided. That said, getting -3 and -110 as opposed to -115 isn't a dealbreaker. This number will likely tip up to -3.5 before kickoff, so bettors should get their action down on the -3 while it remains on the board.

Vikings vs. Dolphins Prediction: Vikings -3 (-115) at DraftKings

 

Vikings vs. Dolphins OddsShopper Model Prediction

OddsShopper's industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props -- and even quarter or half-based derivatives! Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model's predictions and best bets for each game. For the Week 6 matchup between the Vikings and Dolphins, the model has identified a Dolphins tight end as a player to target at his current price.

Betting the over on Mike Gesicki's total receiving yards yields the highest expected ROI of any prop, spread or total for this game. Bettors looking to take advantage of that line can head to DraftKings for the best price on the market!

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