Public perception plays into betting in the NFL more than any other sport. Knowing where the public is betting and if you should follow it or go against it is the difference between being a profitable bettor or being in the red. This week, there are three games in which the public has at least 73% of the bets, and all of them have a unique handicapping angle. Let’s dive deeper into the Week 12 NFL betting trends. For more best NFL bets, check out the OddsShopper tool.
This is the second week in a row where there are not three clear public bets, which shows the parity of the NFL. This is also another week where all three games are around a field goal spread, which has been a very common theme all season. With 3 points being the most common margin of victory, deciding whether or not to bet up to +3.5 points or down to -2.5 becomes another factor. Last week, the Falcons were -3 at the time of this article and ended up -2.5 as the closing line. They won by 3 points.
The picks in this article went 0-3 last week and have been 25-16 (61%) on the season. Here’s the best NFL betting trends to track for Week 12.
Week 12 NFL Trends & Handles vs. Bet Percentage Plays
Ravens at Jaguars (Ravens -3.5, 43.5)
Ravens -3.5; Bets 83%, Handle 79%
The Ravens (7-3) come into this AFC matchup 4-1 on the road with a four-game winning streak. The Jaguars (3-7) are coming off their bye week. They are 2-3 at home and 0-3 in inter-conference games. The Ravens are third in DVOA, fifth in offensive DVOA and 11th in defensive DVOA. They have lost by 4 points or less in their three losses and blew leads in all three of those games. The Jaguars are 19th in DVOA, 13th in offensive DVOA and 26th in defensive DVOA.
The strength of the Ravens offense is their running game, which ranks second at 162.8 yards per game. The Jaguars’ strength is also running the football, as they are seventh in yards per game. Both teams will look to play that way this week, looking to keep the game close with the kicking game and wining the turnover battle.
In the Ravens’ last seven games, the total score has averaged 32.5 (17.4-15.1). The Jaguars have averaged a total of 42 points per game in their last four games. (22.5-19.5).
The total opened at 46.5 and has dropped a full 3 points to 43.5, which is a huge move. The total has gone under in six out of Baltimore’s last seven games and five in a row for the Jaguars at home. The Jaguars have covered their last three as home dogs. With the under being a strong trend, taking the home dog with the added bonus +3.5 is the play. This game has 20-17 or 23-20 written all over it.
Best Bet: Jaguars +3.5 (DraftKings -110) – FADE THE PUBLIC
Chargers at Cardinals (Chargers -3, 48)
Chargers -3; Bets 77%, Handle 48%
The narrative on the Chargers season has been the rash of injuries, which has been a running theme for multiple seasons. They have 14 players on IR, and Mike Williams is listed as questionable. The Cardinals have been battling internal turmoil all season with DeAndre Hopkins‘ suspension, Kyler Murray‘s lackluster play, coaches being fired for bad behavior and now the Sean Payton rumors swirling.
The Cardinals come off a 38-10 drubbing in Mexico City on Monday night against the 49ers. The line in that game moved significantly on the 49ers, and it proved to be correct. The Chargers are coming off two tough losses to the 49ers and the Chiefs. Both defenses give up a ton of points; the Cardinals allow the 31st most (26.9) and the Chargers are 29th (25.8), and the over has hit in Arizona’s last five games.
For as bad as the Cardinals have looked, putting trust in a road favorite with a bad defense in a non-conference game is sub-optimal. Take the home dog that needs a win in the worst way before its season completely implodes.
Best Bet: Cardinals (DraftKings -110) – FADE THE PUBLIC
Raiders at Seahawks (Seahawks -3.5, 45)
Seahawks -3.5; Bets 73%, Handle 82%
The Raiders (3-7) travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks (6-4) Sunday afternoon. Seattle had won four in a row until losing to the Buccaneers two weeks ago 21-16, while the Raiders are coming off a road win at Denver 22-16.
The Seahawks have been one of the best stories of the season, as Geno Smith has proven to be a suitable replacement for Russell Wilson. Seattle is seventh in offensive DVOA, 17th in defensive DVOA and eighth in total DVOA. The Raiders have blown several leads and are tied for last place in the AFC West. They are 15th in offensive DVOA, 32nd in defensive DVOA and 26th in overall DVOA
The Raiders are just 1-5 on the road straight up and 2-4 against the spread. The Seahawks are 6-3 in their last nine at home straight up and against the spread. The 12th man is still a force and gives the Seahawks a significant edge at home. It is OK to lay -3.5 in a game that should be one of the highest totals of the week versus one that has a total in the mid-30s. The true value of the points means more in a lower-scoring game. There is also great line value on Seattle at home in this spot, as this line projects close to -5 to -6.
Best Bet: Seahawks -3.5 (DraftKings -110) – FOLLOW THE PUBLIC
