Public perception plays into betting the NFL more than any other sport. Knowing where the public is betting and when to follow, or bet against it, is the difference between being a profitable bettor or being in the red. There are three games this week in which the public has made at least 75% of the bets. All of those games have a unique handicapping angle. Let’s dive deeper into some Week 13 NFL betting trends. For more of the sharpest NFL bets, check out the OddsShopper tool.
The last couple weeks were very difficult to handicap because of all the games that had short point spreads (0-4 points). This week we get a little more clarity with some incredible matchups like Chiefs-Bengals and Dolphins-49ers that could be playoff previews or potential Super Bowl previews.
The picks in this article went 2-1 last week and have been 27-17 (61%) on the season. Let’s dive in to the best NFL betting trends to track for Week 13.
Week 13 NFL Trends & Handles vs. Bet Percentage Plays
Browns-Texans (Browns -7, 47)
Browns -7; Bets 82%, Handle 86%
Often times handicapping is not about being “for” a team, but being “against” a team based on the situation and the point spread. That is the case here with the Browns who are 4-7 overall and 1-4 on the road. They are a touchdown favorite on the road to the Houston Texans (1-9-1) this week. A big piece of this line being all the way up to -7 points is that DeShaun Watson is returning as the Browns’ starting quarterback. This line would be -3 if Jacoby Brissett was starting, so Watson’s value on the line is four points. That is way too high for a player who has not taken a snap since Week 17 2020.
I am not on the Texans in any way since they have lost six in a row and rank near the bottom of the NFL in almost every offensive and defensive category. However, getting behind the Browns here just feels wrong. The Browns should continue to focus on their running game which is 5th in yards per game. The Texans are 32nd in rushing yards allowed. Backing the 30th ranking defense in points allowed on the road is also a tough pill to swallow.
Something feels very strange about this game, especially since Watson returns to Houston where he demanded out, and then had the off field scandal play out. The crowd will be all over Watson and the Browns and it could end up being a nightmare outcome for them.
Best Browns-Texans Bet: Fade the public, Texans +7.5 (DraftKings -127)
Dolphins-49ers (49ers -4, 46.5)
49ers -4; Bets 75%, Handle 68%
The Miami Dolphins (8-3) travel to Santa Clara to play the San Francisco 49ers (7-4) in one of the marquee games of the week. The Dolphins are 3-2 on the road, while the 49ers are 4-1 at home. Both teams come in with winning streaks. The Dolphins have won five in a row, and the 49ers have won four in a row.
This is a classic case of a prolific offense going against a stout defense. The Dolphins are 3rd in total yards, 2nd in passing yards and 6th in points scored. The 49ers defense is 1st in total yards allowed, points allowed and rushing yards allowed.
On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins defense is 17th in yards allowed, 10th in rushing yards, 22nd in passing yards and 19th in points allowed. The 49ers offense is 10th in total yards, 11th in rushing yards, 10th in passing yards and 15th in points scored. This is where they have an edge and will be able to keep the Dolphins in check.
The 49ers are 4-1 to the under in five home games, while the Dolphins are 4-1 to the over in five road games. I do think this game will come in close to the posted total of 46.5 or just under it but with the 49ers winning by a touchdown. I would not be surprised if this ends up being a Super Bowl preview.
Best Dolphins-49ers Bet: Fade the public, 49ers -4 (DraftKings -110)
Chiefs-Bengals (Chiefs -1.5, 52.5)
Chiefs -1.5; Bets 82%, Handle 89%
The Kansas City Chiefs (9-2) travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals (7-4) Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs are 4-1 on the road while the Bengals are 3-1 at home. Both teams are on winning streaks with the Chiefs having won five in a row and the Bengals winning three.
Both passing offenses rank in the top five with the Chiefs ranked 1st in passing yards, total yards and points scored (29.6). The Bengals are 4th in passing yards, 6th in total yards and 5th in points scored (25.9). Both defenses are middle of the pack and won’t be able to do much in slowing each other down.
The total has gone over in eight out of Kansas City’s last nine games on the road. The Bengals are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine games. Over their last 17 road games, the Chiefs are 12-5 straight up and 6-10-1 against the spread. The Bengals are 6-2 last eight at home and 7-1 against the spread. The Bengals need this game much more than the Chiefs and have all the motivation in this spot.
Best Chiefs-Bengals Bet: Fade the public, Bengals +1.5 (DraftKings -110)
