Week 15 NFL Trends & Public Betting: Buccaneers Bounce Back

Public perception plays into NFL betting more than any other sport. Knowing where the public is betting and when to follow, or bet against it, is the difference between being a profitable bettor or being in the red. There are three games in NFL Week 15 with the public making at least 73% of the bets on one side. Each of those games has a unique handicapping angle, so let’s dive deeper into some Week 15 NFL betting trends.

For more of the sharpest NFL bets, check out the OddsShopper tool.

This week, the public is heavily backing the Minnesota Vikings, Cincinnati Bengals and Philadelphia Eagles. This is also a case of them going against the Indianapolis Colts, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago Bears. Of those latter three, only the Buccaneers have playoff motivation left, trying to win the NFC South.

The picks in this article were 3-0 in NFL Week 14 and have been 32-18 (64%) on the season. Let’s dive in to the best NFL betting trends to track for Week 15.

Week 15 NFL Trends & Handles vs. Bet Percentage Plays

Colts-Vikings (Vikings -3.5, 47.5)

Vikings -3.5; Bets 84%, Handle 74%

Indianapolis (4-8-1) travels to play Minnesota (10-3) on Saturday afternoon. The oddsmakers had the Vikings as underdogs last week against the Detroit Lions and they lost outright, 34-23. Now they are giving them very little respect if you just look at the teams’ records.

This goes to show how much influence DVOA has on the lines. The Vikings are just 21st in total DVOA (18th offense DVOA, 22nd defense DVOA). The Colts are near the bottom in DVOA at 31st overall, 32nd on offense, but 12th on defense. The Vikings defense is 32nd in total yards allowed, 24th in points allowed, and 32nd in passing yards allowed. The Colts are coming off their bye, for what that’s worth, after they were destroyed by the Dallas Cowboys 54-19 in Week 13.

The danger here is you have another non-conference game when the line looks like a trap and you get the dreaded 3-point-with-a-hook number. This is likely to be a field goal game either way, but the half point will become your friend.

Best Colts-Vikings Bet: Fade the public, Colts +3.5 (-110, DraftKings)

Bengals-Buccaneers (Bengals -3.5, 45)

Bengals -3.5; Bets 81%, Handle 78%

Cincinnati (9-4) visits Tampa Bay (6-7) Sunday afternoon in another AFC-NFC matchup. The Bengals come in on a five-game winning streak, while the Buccaneers lost their last game 35-7 to the San Francisco 49ers. The Bengals are tied for first place with the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North, and the Buccaneers lead the NFC South.

For as bad as the Buccaneers have looked at times, they do have some things going for them. Their defense ranks 11th in DVOA, 6th in passing yards allowed, 9th in points allowed, and 10th in total yards allowed. They are 4-1 in their past five at home (19.4-17.4), and the Bengals have three critical AFC games after this week (New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, Ravens).

This game comes down to the Buccaneers needing a rebound home win in a huge way. It should be another very low-scoring affair with Tampa Bay at home, and grabbing another +3.5 spread is the way to play.

Best Bengals-Buccaneers Bet: Fade the public, Buccaneers +3.5 (-110, DraftKings)

Eagles-Bears (Eagles -8.5, 48.5)

Eagles -8.5; Bets 73%, Handle 67%

Philadelphia (12-1) visits Chicago (3-10) on Sunday afternoon. The weather forecast is for 22 degrees and partly cloudy. The Eagles are on a four-game winning streak, while the Bears have lost six in a row. The Eagles are +14 in turnover margin while the Bears are -3.

The Eagles are at the top of most offensive and defensive categories, and DVOA (1st in total DVOA, 2nd in offense, 7th in defense). But if they are vulnerable in one area, it is against the run, where they are 18th in yards allowed and the Bears are 1st in the NFL in rushing offense.

If you are looking for an angle on the Bears, the Eagles are just 2-5 against the spread in their past seven as road favorites. This game script sets up to be a lower-scoring game when the Bears try to run the ball and keep the Eagles offense off the field, which makes the huge number of +8.5 points even more enticing.

This game is very similar to the Kansas City Chiefs–Denver Broncos game last week in that you have a huge disparity in the teams, but the line is just too high to be laying on the road, especially when the favorite has not been covering the number recently.

Best Eagles-Bears Bet: Fade the public, Bears +8.5 (-110, DraftKings)

Week 15 NFL Trends & Public Betting: Buccaneers Bounce Back at Home vs. Bengals

Week 15 NFL Trends & Handles vs. Bet Percentage Plays

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