Welcome to the eighth edition of a new NFL picks article from OddsShopper — the NFL Week 8 Confidence Pool Picks.
Each week will see a ranking of games based on attributed points determined by the number of games. With 15 games this week, games will be ranked from 15 points down to 1 point — the higher the number, the more confident the play. The Chiefs and Chargers are on the bye week.
Some early strategies in the confidence pool center around shorting heavier favorites or bumping up tighter favorites. Most underdogs will be lower-confidence plays because leverage isn’t truly gained by picking upsets, but rather by the positioning of favorites.
All moneyline and NFL betting odds are pulled from OddsShopper.
Any * denotes an upset.
Week 8 NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
- Buffalo Bills (-500) vs. Green Bay Packers
It’s over for Aaron Rodgers. How far he takes this in Green Bay is yet to be seen, but this is one of the ugliest performances seen by his Packers over the course of his tenure. He’s still Aaron Rodgers – which is the same thing working against Tom Brady. No team is coming in feeling sorry for either or taking their teams lightly as a result of their struggles. Expect the Bills to run up the score at home.
- Indianapolis Colts (-140) at Washington Commanders*
Part of the mid-season shift in strategy is bumping up one or two underdogs to an extreme number of points. This is not exchanging a heavy favorite either, as this game makes little sense. The Colts are going to a rookie making his first start in front of an offensive line giving up an absurd number of sacks, and he’s laying points. The Commanders made some key switches in their defensive backfield and that has paid off far more than the quarterback swap.
- Philadelphia Eagles (-490) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Going 7-0 doesn’t seem out of the question for the Eagles as they come off a bye week. The Steelers come off a tough loss where they were in a position to beat the Dolphins. The newfound level of hope in Pittsburgh will be extinguished rather quickly against one of the best teams in the NFL. The biggest advantage here is the Eagles forcing pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which has created turnovers at a high clip.
- Dallas Cowboys (-435) vs. Chicago Bears
While it took some time against the Lions, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are back. Their defense will be in for a treat this week as the enigmatic Bears come to Texas. Justin Fields and his squad are coming off a huge Monday night win and should be grounded by the Cowboys’ aggressive defensive front. Dallas has a couple of ballhawks in their secondary, making it even harder to throw for Fields. Chicago’s run defense isn’t what it used to be, which should play into the Cowboys’ strength.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-156) vs. Denver Broncos
This is essentially a home game in trend for the Jaguars, but still new to Doug Pederson. What’s not new to Denver is losing football games, and the same should be expected overseas. Be it Russell Wilson or not, the circumstances don’t play well for this team. Jacksonville has dropped four straight, but they are in football games, making mistakes but still hanging. Denver is alive in name only, thanks to heroic performances by their defense – something that cannot continue each week.
- Minnesota Vikings (-180) vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are making too many mistakes to let their Thursday night win remove much doubt. They had a favorable matchup with their defensive coordinator against Andy Dalton, something they don’t have this week against the Vikings. The battle of wide receivers will take center stage, but the winner will come down to something bigger than Justin Jefferson vs. DeAndre Hopkins. It all comes down to turnovers. Unforced errors are what the Cardinals do best.
- Cincinnati Bengals (-177) vs. Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati is looking good, winning two straight and four of their last five games. Outside of last week against the Falcons, the Bengals have been doing it despite being outgained in some key categories. That changed and should continue this week against a fleeting Browns team that just had their fourth straight. Only one of those defeats came by more than 3 points. They certainly make it interesting in Cleveland, but in a non-spread pool, the Bengals beating Cleveland is high on the list.
- Seattle Seahawks (-145) vs. New York Giants*
The Giants are the most disrespected one-loss team in the NFL. Nobody believes in them outside of their own fans, no matter how many times the team keeps winning. Brian Daboll has done wonders taking pressure off Daniel Jones, while somehow asking him to still make some plays. Speaking of masterful coaching jobs, Pete Carroll would like a word. Both teams are smashing preseason expectations, but the Giants are the ones built for distance.
- Miami Dolphins (-164) at Detroit Lions
The Dolphins should be higher on this list but it’s a confidence pool and there’s just none heading toward South Beach. Yes, Miami got by the Steelers this past Sunday, but Pittsburgh had a handful of interceptions. Miami’s quarterback situation is back to stable from a health standpoint but there are major concerns about consistency. Detroit gives up a ton, kind of score a bunch and is dangerous in a shootout.
- Atlanta Falcons (-210) vs. Carolina Panthers
Speaking of dangerous, the Panthers are in a weird spot and way too volatile to trust. The Falcons finally came up short last week after covering six straight spreads. This game is difficult to figure out from any narrative standpoint, as the Falcons were embarrassed for the first time this year and the Panthers come off their biggest win in years. The better chance is Carolina letting down, but they seem to be playing fine after shedding a coach, coordinator and star running back.
- Baltimore Ravens (-120) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Ravens are in prime position to kick Brady while he’s down not let him up. The problem is the Ravens let everyone up, including the Browns in last week’s three-point win. Baltimore blows leads. It’s what they do. Unfortunately for Tampa, they couldn’t get back in a game against the Panthers and that might not even be their lowest point yet.
- Las Vegas Raiders (-126) vs New Orleans Saints*
The Saints suffered a horrendous loss on Thursday night as their backup quarterback faced a defensive coordinator with a winning history. The Saints starting Dalton again wouldn’t be nearly as bad from a turnover standpoint, mainly because the Raiders are so friendly in giving up yards. Vegas has some exploitable matchups beyond Davante Adams – mainly Josh Jacobs – but their defense is so bad it’s going to open up New Orleans’ air game.
- New England Patriots (-125) at New York Jets*
So much will be made about counting out Bill Belichick following that embarrassing defeat at home and how he owns the Jets with years of trends piling up. Both will miss the obvious point: the Jets are just better right now than New England. There are a lot of younger players on the Patriots who haven’t won multiple Super Bowls with that coach. A belligerent self-inflicting wound like what Belichick did by starting Mac Jones will allow doubt to creep in. Meanwhile, Robert Saleh has the entire five boroughs singing, “Start spreading the news.”
- Tennessee Titans (-124) vs. Houston Texans
The Texans aren’t an easy out by any means. The biggest thing they do well is score efficiently in the Red Zone, at least heading into last week. They have a chance to play up the division angle against a Titans team that’s kind of back up top by default. The Titans are waiting for a couple of breakout games from Derrick Henry, which would exponentially help out Ryan Tannehill.
- San Francisco 49ers (-118) at Los Angeles Rams
The Niners battled back from injury only to be blown out by an angry Chiefs team. The Rams got their bye week in last week and are hoping to just turn around a lackluster season. The biggest question for the Rams’ offense is their absent running game, with a now-absent running back in Cam Akers. Matthew Stafford has been brutal, whereas Jimmy Garoppolo received some major help from Christian McCaffrey. That will be the difference this week, but not by much.
