Let’s dive into the top betting angles from the NHL’s six-game Monday slate, including some long-shot scorers in favorable matchups. For more of the best NHL bets and NHL props, be sure to check out the OddsShopper tool. Tonight’s best bets include a few longshots, including the Calgary Flames’ surprise rookie forward Matthew Phillips, whose had massive success at the AHL level this season.
NHL Best Bets for Tonight | Dec. 16
St. Louis Blues vs. Calgary Flames Over 6 Goals (-105)
Calgary’s offensive play seems likely to take a notable step backwards this season, but even still, matchups involving St. Louis simply should have a total of 6.5 barring rare exceptions. The Flames offensive game does still appear underrated in the analytics and could be due for somewhat of an uptick.
St. Louis’ roster is constructed in such a way that it will always allow a ton of goals, but it also has a number of lethal finishers and playmakers capable of generating heavy amounts of offense themselves. This narrative even shined through in the postseason last year, and it unsurprisingly has begun to be a cash cow for bettors as this season has moved along.
Over the last month, Blues games have averaged 7.25 combined goals, and the over has gone 12-4-0 in those 16 games.
Over Calgary’s last 10 outings, it has generated 3.22 expected goals per 60, which is good for a 17th-best mark in the league. The talent on the Flames roster still suggests it should be able to generate slightly more than that, but regardless, a desperate Flames side will present a challenge for Thomas Greiss and the Blues.
St. Louis, meanwhile, continues to outscore its expectations yet again this season, with 2.05 goals above expected. Normally that would be a knock, but this Blues core has consistently outscored its offensive expectations by a wide margin, and there is some causation.
St. Louis has no willingness to fire pointless looks on the net and prefers to risk more passes through the slot than an average NHL team. Those passes ultimately lead to extreme high-danger chances, which go under-credited in public expected goal models when completed but count as nothing expected goals-wise when failed.
The Blues have numerous skaters with above-average finishing capabilities on the end of those looks, and together this combines to make the St. Louis offense extremely capable while not entirely owning the possession.
Offensively, St. Louis is still going to be an above-average side this season and will trend upwards from its current 23rd-place ranking. Defensively, the Blues hold a number of key concerns, and the fact that they have allowed the fourth-most goals in the league at 3.70 per game makes a lot of sense considering defensive zone play.
Jordan Binnington’s struggles in goal have drawn a ton of attention, but backup Thomas Greiss has also struggled in net and will play tonight. Greiss has saved just 89.9% of shots faced and has a rating of -2.7 goals saved above expected. The price at -105 is good to ride a trend that has been extremely profitable over the last year in the NHL, and the fact that both offenses are slightly undervalued at this point helps as well.
Matthew Boldy Over 2.5 Shots on Goal -130
Boldy has consistently generated a ton of shots on goal this season, with 85 throughout 29 games (2.93 per game). Targeting plus matchups for shooters is the most important thing a bettor can do when looking at shot on goal plays, as oddsmakers should be moving the numbers more drastically when a team is extremely likely to put more shots on target than usual.
A home matchup where the Wild are rightly priced (-430) is exactly the kind of spot to bet overs, while obviously the opposite logic holds true for backers looking to go under.
The Blackhawks have allowed 35.37 shots on goal per game over the last month, and the talent on board simply suggests it is never going to hold more of the possession and prevent opposition shot attempts at a better rate moving forward. One could make a case for any of Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello and Boldy to go over their shot total, but in this particular matchup, slight intricacies make Boldy the best value, although at least two of the three will likely hit.
As such a heavy favorite, Minnesota could become well positioned to sit on a lead. The Wild’s third forward unit of Boldy, Frederick Gaudreau and Sammy Walker should see steady minutes throughout this game as well. Walker has been an absolute buzzsaw since coming up to the NHL, and Minnesota’s third unit has thrived to a 73.7% expected goals share in 21.1 minutes together. If that trio continues to control play at such a high level at five-on-five, that will be another factor for Boldy’s attempts on goal.
Minnesota should also be liable to draw an above-average number of power plays in this matchup, which is another great factor working in Boldy’s favor, as he is still skating on the Wild’s top unit.
Sammy Walker Anytime Goal Scorer +590
Backing a first NHL tally from Walker at +590 is worth a sprinkle considering how the Wild’s stellar third line has dominated to this point. That is not going to change in a matchup with Chicago, who is arguably skating fewer quality two-way players than any other roster in the league.
Blackhawks starting netminder for the contest Petr Mrazek has allowed 4.37 goals against per game, and this is a great prop to target on a night where the Wild will likely score four or more goals. Walker is a capable scorer and managed 11 goals in 21 games prior to his call up to the NHL.
