The first matchup between ranked teams of bowl season is a fun Group of 5 battle: Troy-UTSA in the Cure Bowl. UTSA is favored by less than a field goal in the college football odds, and bettors looking for a positive return should tail these Cure Bowl predictions — or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays. Nonetheless, onto our Troy-UTSA predictions.
Troy-UTSA Prediction: Cure Bowl Odds
Troy's Defense Solid, Vulnerable Against Run
At 11-2, the Troy Trojans won the Sun Belt and were probably one App State Hail Mary away from playing against USC in the Cotton Bowl this year. The Trojans instead drew the Cure Bowl in Orlando, Fla -- a solid destination bowl game for a hardworking group of players. They'll look to extend their winning streak to 10 in head coach Joe Sumrall's first year at the helm.
The Trojans have played strong team defense all season. Although Troy ranks only 56th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), the defense ranks 35th in the metric, behind only four other Group of 5 programs. Troy has allowed the eighth-fewest yards per play this season (4.6), the 10th-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.1) and the 18th-fewest yards per rush attempt (3.4). Undersized linebacker Carlton Martial even broke the record for career tackles in the FBS in November.
Although Troy's defense has played well, it hasn't looked unbeatable. The Trojans rank just 66th in line yards and 116th in power success rate allowed (78.1%). Ole Miss' rushing attack generated 268 yards and three scores against Troy in the season opener, and Army's triple-option attack picked up 275 yards and one score.
The Trojans have done just enough on offense. Five of their 11 wins came by one score, including four games in which the Trojans failed to put more than 20 points on the board. Running backs Kimani Vidal and DK Billingsley have led the way with 1,715 total rushing yards and 17 total rushing scores, but they've had to play behind an offensive line ranked a mediocre 60th in line yards.
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UTSA Getting Frank Harris Back in 2023
Like the Trojans, the 11-2 UTSA Roadrunners might have made the Cotton Bowl but for one close loss. The Roadrunners fell to the Houston Cougars in triple overtime back in September after allowing 17 fourth-quarter points. Fortunately, star quarterback Frank Harris and head coach Jeff Traylor plan to run it back next season. Traylor is still hunting for his first bowl win as a head coach.
Harris has powered UTSA this season. His passing efficiency rating (167.4) ranks seventh in the FBS, which puts him between USC's Caleb Williams (168) and Oregon's Bo Nix (167). Like both Williams and Nix, Harris combines an impressive arm with mobility -- the star quarterback has thrown for 3,865 yards, 31 touchdowns and seven interceptions while adding 588 yards and nine scores on the ground. He has led UTSA's offense to a 24th-place ranking in the FEI.
That said, Harris has often needed to compensate for UTSA's defense. The Roadrunners played three non-conference games this year and went to overtime in two of them, the lone exception being a 21-point loss to Texas. Houston got a 17-point run in the fourth quarter to tie things back up before Harris led a game-tying drive for a field goal. Army scored a game-tying touchdown with just over a minute left.
Final Cure Bowl Prediction & Pick
Troy's offense isn't great, but UTSA's defense inspires even less confidence. The Roadrunners beat up on weak C-USA opposition all year but struggle against non-conference opposition and UAB. Army, Houston and Texas all cleared this number, and only Houston needed help from overtime.
Although Troy's defense will do its best, the Trojans must put points on the board to keep up with Frank Harris. They have shown the ability to do that recently. The Trojans hung 45 points against Grayson McCall and Coastal in the Sun Belt championship. They scored 48 against Arkansas State the week before and 34 against Louisiana-Monroe right before that. Expect a similarly solid showing from their offense in the Cure Bowl.
Final Cure Bowl Prediction: Troy Team Total Over 27.5 (-110 for 0.55 Unit) at DraftKings
