Let’s dive into the top betting angles from the NHL’s six-game Monday slate, including some long-shot scorers in favorable matchups. For more of the best NHL bets and NHL props, be sure to check out the OddsShopper tool. Tonight’s best bets include a few longshots, including Calgary Flames surprise rookie forward Matthew Phillips, whose had massive success at the AHL level this season.
NHL Best Bets for Tonight | Dec. 12
Brady Tkachuk Over 1.5 Points +160
Matchup’s mean everything with regards to betting NHL player props, and as I have examined on a number of occasions NHL oddsmakers are not moving the prices enough for players skating in the best possible matchups.
A home matchup versus the Anaheim Ducks is as good as it gets for backing an NHL player to go over on points, shots, or goals, and Tkachuk is a perfect target to tap into that trend.
The Ducks have allowed 4.21 goals against per game this season, which is even a whole goal worse than a middle of the pack defensive side (Detroit is 16th with a 3.11 goals against average), and prices should be drastically different than an average spot with that in mind.
Especially as Anaheim has simply been horrific and allowing the league’s most goals against is not surprising evaluating its play.
Their league-worst 4.00 expected goals allowed per 60 are another massive comment upon how suspect the Ducks have been defensively, and that the number of goals against allowed is not going to improve moving forward.
The Senators top line of Tkachuk, Tim Stuetzle and Claude Giroux has controlled play to a 66.8% expected goals share, which is the fourth highest rating out of the entire league among forward units which have played 75 or more minutes together at five on five.
More importantly towards this prop is the fact that the unit has generated 4.64 expected goals per 60 minutes, which is the second highest rating in the entire NHL. All three are due to generate to see an uptick in actual production moving forward, and Tkachuk is more likely to produce two points tonight than prices of +160 or better suggest.
Matthew Phillips Anytime Goal Scorer +600
Sticking with the narrative that it is very crucial to target top matchups we have Matthew Phillips against the Montreal Canadiens, who have allowed a league worst xGA/60 of 3.93 over the last month of action.
Phillips has produced the second most points in the AHL this season and drew a ton of attention Saturday night skating in his second ever NHL contest Saturday versus Toronto.
In a game where Calgary controlled less of the play altogether in a tough matchup versus the Leafs, Calgary’s third line of Phillips, Mikael Backlund, and Adam Ruzicka controlled play to an expected goals share of 65.1%.
Phillips is a capable scorer that has not yet been given a chance at the NHL level. His unit is going to generate chances tonight versus Montreal. If you are one of the users with a sportsbook offering Phillips to record a point that is a good bet as well, but +600 is a great price to back a first career NHL tally.
Mikael Backlund Over 2.5 Shots on Goal +116:
A second way to target a strong performance from Calgary’s third line comes in the way of Mikael Backlund, who has generated three or more shots in three of Calgary’s last six contests altogether, but as covered is getting a stellar matchup tonight.
Backlund will also see his shots on goal average rise should he continue to spend more time with possession in the offensive zone, which could be very realistic moving forward if the Flames newfound third unit continues to dominate.
+116 is a good price considering the excellent matchup and that Backlund is now skating on what should be a great line, and I would play this down to +105.
