Let’s dive into the top betting angles from the NHL’s five-game Thursday slate, including two player props, and a total. For more of the best NHL bets and NHL props, be sure to check out the OddsShopper tool.
NHL Best Bets for Tonight (Dec. 8)
Arthur Kaliyev Anytime Goal Scorer +350 (Kings vs. Maple Leafs)
Kaliyev took a somewhat mysterious plummet down the board on draft day in 2019, dropping to 33rd overall despite holding a lethal offensive skill set, and bagging 51 goals in his draft eligible season.
Flash forward to 2022 and Kaliyev looks like he may be one of the the best players drafted outside of the top 15. Kaliyev’s game is not entirely well rounded which has prevented Los Angeles from providing him more of a role this season, but over the last five games he has trended toward 13:00 time on ice per game.
Which is still seemingly unjustifiably low, but it seems likely that Kaliyev will remain up on the Kings top line with Kevin Fiala and Anze Kopitar tonight and skate 15:00 or more like we saw in Ottawa.
Kaliyev has scored 1.7 goals per 60 minutes of play, which is the 19th-highest mark in the league thus far.
Keep in mind that he has managed such a dominant scoring clip while skating on the fourth line mainly. So, while not only is he more likely to score now due to the fact that he is going to skate more minutes, but it’s also entirely possible that Kaliyev will score more often in those minutes playing alongside more talented players.
+350 is going to be an extremely profitable number should Kaliyev remain in this improved role, and Kaliyev is a player to watch in both DFS and prop betting for the foreseeable future.
Victor Hedman Over 0.5 Assists +112 (Predators vs. Lightning)
Hedman’s return to the Lightning’s top power play means he should be due for an uptick with regards to his shots on goal and offensive production.
Although the power play has run very well with Mikhail Sergachev taking over for Hedman, Lightning coach Jon Cooper has decided to shake it up and put Hedman back as the quarterback of Tampa’s vaunted power play.
That has gigantic implications on both the prop and DFS markets, and sportsbooks they are not adjusting for this rearrangement enough.
The Lightning’s power play is fourth best this season at 28.4%, but has always thrived with Hedman as well and was a massive part of the back-to-back Cup championships.
The Predators present as a steady target, having allowed a ninth-worst xGA/60 this season, and entering with a middle of the pack penalty kill at 79%.
+112 is a great number for Hedman to record an assist with these things considered, and 10 games from now this prop will likely be back down closer to -110 on a nightly basis should he remain in this role.
Ottawa Senators vs. Dallas Stars Over 6.5 -122
Ottawa was offensively projected to be among the league’s most potent teams entering the 2022-23 campaign yet has struggled to a 19th-best goals for per game average throughout 27 games thus far.
However analytically Ottawa has in fact been one of the more potent offensive sides, and Ottawa’s 3.65 expected goals for per 60 over the last month ranks second in the entire NHL.
Some teams will always underperform the expected goals rates, but an offence stacked with capable playmakers and finishers such as Drake Batherson, Alex DeBrincat, Tim Stuetzle, and Brady Tkachuk does not seem likely to be one of them.
However, Ottawa is allowing a ton of chances at the other end of the ice, with its xGA/60 mark over that same sample going as the ninth worth in the league.
Ottawa is therefore playing some of the highest event hockey in the entire league, yet that notion has been somewhat under wraps since the Senators have finished offensive chances off at an alarmingly low rate.
Dallas has scored the fourth-most goals for in the league this season and are playing considerably more high event hockey themselves.
The makings are there for Thursday night’s contest to be a shootout, and this projects as a good time to back the over.
