Adam Silver and the NBA have been reticent to schedule meaningful games on Thursday nights during football season, but tonight’s Nuggets-Trail Blazers matchup makes for an interesting matchup. At 14-10, the Nuggets rank a solid fourth in the Western Conference, while the 13-11 Trail Blazers aren’t far behind in eighth. Portland is a narrow home favorite for tonight’s contest, and bettors looking for a positive return should tail these Nuggets-Trail Blazers predictions and pick — or check out OddShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
NBA Odds: Nuggets-Trail Blazers Odds
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Denver Shooting Well, Defending Poorly
The Denver Nuggets are off to a solid start this year. They rank 12th in net rating (+1.3) behind their fifth-best offense (115.8). Center Nikola Jokic has looked as good as ever, and he’s led the Nuggets to rank a strong third in team effective field-goal percentage (57.2%). Denver’s combination of smart offensive play and a slow, deliberate pace has allowed them to compensate for their uninspiring defensive play. The Nuggets rank 26th in defensive rating (114.5) and 23rd in pace.
Denver’s defensive woes stem from poor rim protection and questionable perimeter defense. The Nuggets rank a concerning 22nd in points in the paint allowed per game (51.2) but a terrible 30th in shooting percentage allowed in the restricted area (71.5%). The Nuggets have begun to step up their game late — they rank third in points in the paint allowed over the last seven games (46) — but that’s come at the expense of their perimeter defense.
Despite Denver’s slow pace, the Nuggets have allowed the 12th-most made 3’s per game this season (12.4). Opposing teams have gashed them from the right corner. Denver is tied for the third-most right corner 3’s allowed per game this year (1.8) on the second-highest shooting percentage allowed (44%). Dallas’ Dorian Finney-Smith sank three triples on four attempts against them on Tuesday.
Portland Just Got Lillard Back
The Portland Trail Blazers started hot, but they have since cooled down over recent weeks. They now rank a decent 17th in net rating (-0.7) behind their 12th-ranked offense (112.4). Like the Nuggets, they have also played relatively slowly while struggling on defense. They rank 23rd in defensive rating (113.1) and 27th in pace.
Portland enters Thursday’s contest in relatively good health. The Trail Blazers finally got Damian Lillard back last Sunday, and he helped them to a 16-point win over the Pacers. Portland is a whopping 8.4 points more efficient with Lillard on the floor, so getting him back should help this offense trend in the right direction.
However, Lillard is a notoriously inefficient defender, and his return could be a boon for opposing backcourts. Indiana’s Andrew Nembhard just racked up 16 points and eight assists in relief of Tyrese Haliburton in Lillard’s first game back. Although Portland ranks a strong second in points allowed to point guards (20.4), the Blazers surrendered the third-most points per game to the position last year (22.9).
Final Nuggets-Trail Blazers Prediction & Pick
Bettors should target high-volume right-corner shooters against the Nuggets until Denver figures out how to defend those shots more effectively. Portland’s Jerami Grant works as the team’s primary corner shooter and has averaged a team-high 1.6 attempts from the right corner per game. He also does plenty of work from above the break and averages 2.8 made 3’s per game.
Grant’s total for made 3’s sits in the plus money at 2.5. Although the books may anticipate a dip in Grant’s workload with Damian Lillard back in the lineup, he just shot 3-for-10 from deep against the Pacers. Grant has also averaged 2.9 made 3’s per game with Lillard in the lineup.
Final Nuggets-Trail Blazers Pick: Jerami Grant Over 2.5 Made 3’s (+135) at DraftKings
