Let’s dive into the top betting angles from the NHL’s fabulous 12-game Thursday slate, including a total, a pair of sides, and two player props. For more of the best NHL bets and NHL props, be sure to check out the OddsShopper tool.
NHL Best Bets for Tonight | Dec. 15
Columbus versus Tampa Bay Over 6.5 -125:
Dating back to the start of last season Columbus has continually proven to be an extremely profitable side to target with over bets, and despite a rare sample of lower scoring games of late, this narrative still makes a ton of sense.
To look at a sample size with some relevance, the Blue Jackets have still played in contests averaging 6.86 combined goals over the last month. That’s lower than we are used to seeing, but still a favorable comment for today’s matchup.
Defensively the Blue Jackets are simply dreadful and has allowed 4.07 goals against per game this season. Columbus was by no means ever going to be a strong defensive side this season, but the loss of top defender Zach Werenski among several others has hurt the cause.
Tampa Bay has been in entirely dominant offensive form of late and has averaged 4.16 goals per game in the month of December. Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Steven Stamkos are all in entirely dominant form, and seeing a soft defensive side in the Blue Jackets keep the Lightning to less than four would be downright surprising.
Brian Elliott will take the net for Tampa Bay however, which makes them a far more gettable target for Blue Jackets shooters as opposed to nights with Andrei Vasilevskiy in.
Elliott has played to a .895 save % and 3.39 GAA this season and seeing Columbus surprise and manage three goals in this spot would be very logical.
Casey Mittelstadt Over 0.5 Points +108:
The Buffalo Sabres top line of Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson, and Alex Tuch has quietly been one of the most dominant units in the league and have been a prop bettors dream all season long.
Well with Skinner suspended that unit took on a new look over the last two contests, but the on-ice result has been the same.
Mittelstadt has been elevated to the vacant wing on Buffalo’s top line over the last two contests and appears likely to remain in that role Thursday. Mittelstadt, Thompson, and Tuch have controlled play to a 68.1% expected goals share in 23 minutes together and appear every bit as dangerous as with Skinner in the mix.
Mittelstadt also gains a spot-on Buffalo’s top powerplay unit, which has clicked 29.2% of the time this season, and is undoubtedly still an elite unit short the services of Skinner.
Mittelstadt having zero points in these newfound roles has been an anomaly to what we will see over a larger sample. Versus the Kings Mittelstadt was on the ice for four Buffalo goals and did contribute a “third” assist. The fact that Mittelstadt has produced less than he will moving forward keeps this betting line at a great price and playing this price of +108 over a large sample with Mittelstadt in this role will be +EV.
Jonathan Marchessault Over 3.5 Shots on Goal -110:
The most important thing a shot prop bettor can do is target matchups in which his side is likely to surpass its shot on goal average, as oddsmakers continue to leave shot on goal prices at nearly identical regardless of side.
Take for example Marchessault, who was a consensus -105 to record four shots versus Winnipeg last time out and cashed the over for a third consecutive contest.
Well, Marchessault is still priced at -110 today, however the Blackhawks have allowed 36.08 shots against per game over the last month, which is simply to be expected for a roster which is never likely to control more of the play in any given contest and not a fluke.
Marchessault has become the defacto #1 shooter on Vegas top powerplay unit with Jack Eichel sidelined and will continue to generate a wealth of shots in that role and at five-on-five. Marchessault’s two goal performance versus Winnipeg was highly impressive and has quietly been in exceptional form all season long.
Entering a perfect matchup with a ton of confidence is exactly what we want and counting on Marchessault to generate four shots on goal or more in this spot at nearly even money is a strong proposition.
