With each passing week we get closer to the Open Championship, but in the meantime birdie fests seem to be dominating the PGA Tour. The last few weeks have been first to 25-under type winners and Rickie Fowler was the latest addition to the list with a win last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Don’t expect much to change with the 2023 John Deere Classic up next.
From a betting standpoint we have an incredibly weak field which makes the odds not great but gives some lesser-known names a real shot to win. Here are a few guys to keep an eye on when building out your 2023 John Deere Classic outright picks card this week.
2023 John Deere Classic Outright Picks
Adam Schenk (30-1, DraftKings)
I imagine I won’t be alone in holding a Schenk outright ticket this week. He nearly got his first PGA Tour win in late May, but was taken down in the playoff by Emiliano Grillo. Since then he posted a 7th at Memorial and then bounced back last week with another 7th at the Rocket Mortgage. More importantly than finding the top-10 board was posting a 20-under, showing that this type of golf works just fine for Schenk’s game.
Numbers wise, it’s hard to gauge where these guys should land, but the field strength is so weak it’s not hard to justify value with Schenk even at 30-1. He is consistently gaining with the approach numbers, and it never hurts to see a 6th and 4th place finish at this event in his last two starts.
Normally I think course history like that can cause the market to overreact and hang a poor number, but that doesn’t seem to be the case with Schenk here. He is just as live as anyone to take this down and he was one of my first clicks this week in the betting market.
Stephan Jaeger (40-1, DraftKings)
One of the many guys who has flashed the ability to win on Tour without putting it all together. Jaeger has the skills and particularly the ball striking to go low enough to compete at this layout. The big question for him and many players in this field is will the putter convert enough of his quality iron shots? Nobody knows, but at 40-1 there is a lot to like here.
Jaeger was 30th at last years Deere but we saw the classic putting woes let him down. He gained nearly 11 strokes tee to green but lost 6 on the green which limited the upside. Coming in with a string of made cuts and quality results this is a guy I don’t mind buying at all to finish the season as he is certainly live to get in the hunt once again.
Callum Tarren (90-1, DraftKings)
Tarren is quickly becoming a guy I want on my betting cards as he is a big-time longshot with some serious upside. I added him after the cut last week and although he had some chances he finished at -13 which was only good for a T29. Still, it’s encouraging to see iron play that is amongst the best in the field and some consistency in his recent form.
Sorry to sound like a broken record, but it’s the putter that has to come around for Tarren to get in the mix at this big 90-1 number. He has only gained strokes putting once since May and that makes it incredibly difficult to achieve the scores needed at these tracks. It’s a minor data point but in Tarren’s lone appearance here he gained over 4 strokes putting and finished in 6th so maybe he will once again like these greens.
If you want a guy with longer odds this week Tarren makes a lot of sense and I wouldn’t be shocked to see 90-1 be gone by Thursday.
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