The PGA season rolls on with another elevated event and another familiar course for players. The Memorial Tournament is upon us, which brings the PGA Tour to Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio, for what should be an excellent test for the field. Since this is an elevated event and Jack Nicklaus’ tournament, we have a limited field of about 70 players but plenty of big names, which can be both a blessing and curse for betting. Having fewer players to choose from makes things easier, but the odds reflect the smaller field, so the prices aren’t as favorable down the board. Still, we have a lot of potential targets for Memorial Tournament PGA best bets this week.
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Memorial Tournament Odds, Picks & PGA Best Bets
A regular stop on tour won’t surprise anyone, so the par-72, roughly 7,500-yard layout is a tough test for any type of player. The length will force some decisions off the tee, but golfers cannot blindly bomb it here given the plenty of trees lining the fairways and danger lurking in this rough. The standard total driving or strokes gained on approach will come in handy this week, as it does at most events, but the players who contend have control of their ball striking.
This setup resembles a major in the sense it tests all aspects of the game, and it isn’t just a putting contest or first to -25 that we’ve seen at some other stops.
Memorial Tournament PGA Best Bet: Tommy Fleetwood
I had someone on Twitter point out the obvious yet alarming stat of if you bet Fleetwood outright in every PGA Tour event he’s played in, your lifetime ROI is -100%. That’s a longwinded way of saying he’s never won on tour, and that’s disappointing for a player who constantly peppers the board. People smarter than me can debate whether it’s because he’s unable to close or it is just really difficult to actually win a PGA tour tournament, and the variance at the top is massive. There have been a ton of players who couldn’t win until they did.
One thing nobody can argue is that Fleetwood churns out quality showings each and every week. If you do not want to go this route, the top-10 markets have been an asset given his ball striking helps him compete across all types of layouts. Field strength or course difficulty won’t be an issue for Fleetwood, but closing late on Sunday probably will be. If Fleetwood ever does win, I expect it to be this type of tournament where the putting isn’t everything and he can separate from the field in difficult conditions.
Memorial Tournament Best Bet: Tommy Fleetwood (28-1 at DraftKings)
Memorial Tournament PGA Best Bet: Tony Finau
Considering I made my promo code TONY this week, we have to like Finau’s chances to compete, even against some tough competition. We are seeing signs that his game is trending upwards, with a top-20 at the PGA Championship thanks to iron play that will translate anywhere. That’s been a common theme for Finau, who is basically automatic in terms of gaining strokes on the approach this season. Finding the weekend also hasn’t been an issue with eight of his last 10 cuts made and plenty of experience around this track. His putter is a wild card, but you can say that for almost everyone in the field, and this isn’t a week where he absolutely needs to crush with the flatstick.
Finau sits at a reasonable 45-1, which again speaks to the strength of the field. If he can pair up even a remotely hot putter with his typical tee-to-green game, then he will get to the weekend with a shot to cash this outright. Most of the boxes are checked from reasonable form to solid course fit and, most importantly, odds I can justify.
Memorial Tournament Best Bet: Tony Finau (45-1 at FanDuel)
Memorial Tournament PGA Best Bet: Matthew Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick is also rounding into form at the right time. If you zoom out in 2025, it hasn’t been a season up to his standards, as he is a multiple time winner on tour, including a U.S. Open just a few years ago. It’s clear what the issues have been – ball striking and putting that hasn’t been to the level we are accustomed to seeing from Fitzpatrick. That will have to change this week.
There are some reasons for optimism as Fitzpatrick comes off an eighth place at the PGA Championship, where he was dialed in across the board. He gained nearly six strokes on the approach, paired up with positive strokes gained putting, which is the formula he’s used for years to have success both here and in Europe. Tough conditions aren’t going to phase Fitzpatrick, and he has the skills to tackle Muirfield Village. Add in that he’s been a walking top-10 at this event over the last few years, and he has a great shot to get to the weekend with a chance to cash this ticket.
Memorial Tournament Best Bet: Matthew Fitzpatrick (50-1 at FanDuel)
One thing worth mentioning is the weather as we get closer to lock. Even with smaller-field tee time stacks, other edges may open up if we see any potential wind split later in the week.
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