The PGA TOUR heads to Oak Hill Country Club for the second major of the year: The 2023 PGA Championship. We know how much time and research has to go into making the best PGA Championship picks, so we’ve brought four of our experts together to give their predictions.
Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm are the betting favorites at the 2023 PGA Championship before a hefty drop off to the rest of the field, including Rory McIlroy.
But our experts aren’t looking that high up the board. Instead, the value lies a little bit lower.
2023 PGA Championship Expert Picks
Ben Rasa’s Best Bet: Tony Finau (22-1, DraftKings)
I mentioned Finau as an outright in my first look article at 25-1, and the number has dropped a little to 22-1. It makes sense given this course setup and Finau being on a list of guys knocking on the door to winning their first major. Finau was for a long time searching for any victory, but after a stretch of prolific wins, the talk of Finau getting his first major is growing. He just outdueled Jon Rahm to win in Mexico, and Finau heads into Oak Hill checking almost all the boxes.
Length will be an asset and can only help strong drivers like Finau. Add in his red-hot iron play all season, and he has some of the best ball-striking numbers on tour. Finau’s putter comes and goes, but bentgrass (which Oak Hill has) is his preferred surface. Finau comes in with every part of his game working, and even at this reduced number, he should be taken seriously as an outright bet this week.
Find Ben’s best matchup bets here!
Eric Lindquist’s Best Bet: Sam Burns (60-1, DraftKings)
A staple of my weekly betting card, the boom/bust nature of Burns has yet to boom at a major championship. In fact, he has yet to finish inside the top 20 at any major in 11 tries. But he has shown the ability to excel at difficult, tactical tracks on the PGA Tour such as Innisbrook — where he’s gone first, first, sixth the past three years at the Valspar — and Colonial, where he defeated his good friend Scottie Scheffler in a playoff last season. Those golf courses require a lot of the total driving and excellent long-iron play that will also be necessities to compete at Oak Hill this week, making the five-time PGA Tour winner with a propensity to putt better than anyone in the world an excellent buy at 60-1
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Bryan Berryman’s Best Bet: Patrick Cantlay (22-1, DraftKings)
Cantlay is one of the most consistent players from tee to green in the world. Considering the challenges golfers face this week, he sets up very nicely for success at Oak Hill. Cantlay ranks first in strokes gained off the tee over the last 24 tracked rounds, which is a key metric I’m considering this week since it allows golfers to navigate this course length without encountering significant trouble.
In addition to a strong tee game, Cantlay ranks fifth in strokes gained putting over the last 100 rounds on bentgrass greens. He has secured three top-4 finishes over his last six starts — that certainly checks the box off for recent form. There’s a lot of data pointing to Cantlay this week. His overall skillset makes him a perfect fit for the demands of the course, which should give him a great chance to capture the first major championship of his career. I played this at 22-1 earlier in the week but would not go much lower than 19-1 available at FanDuel.
Eytan Shander’s Best Bet: Hideki Matsuyama (55-1, FanDuel)
The biggest concern centering around Matsuyama is the pain in his neck. While the game of golf itself will always offer its own version of internal angst, Matsuyama seems to be healthy. He’s been a beacon of consistency since two missed cuts at the Genesis and Arnold Palmer. Even when he’s struggled to gain strokes on the green, Matsuyama has made up for it off the tee and with approach shots. The length at Oak Hill should play nicely to his game, and bogey avoidance shouldn’t be as laborious of a process for others — Matsuyama has gained strokes on approach shots in three straight events. There’s no reason why a Masters champion and now healthy golfer with the caliber of Matsuyama should be priced at 55-1. While he’s not gaining a bunch on the green, Matsuyama isn’t losing anything either. All he needs is a couple of solid rolls with the flat stick to be celebrating on Sunday.