American League Cy Young Odds: Wide Open Arms Race (2024)

The American League Cy Young odds have been open for months, and as the regular season approaches, we’re running out of time to take advantage of the best prices. As a result, let’s look at the AL Cy Young Award odds and see if there are any value spots — currently, it looks like a wide-open arms race, but Corbin Burnes stands out near the top of the board. Looking for more analysis and picks? Check out our MLB betting tools or our MLB betting promos!

2024 American League Cy Young Odds: Wide Open Arms Race

2024 American League Cy Young Odds

A Wide Open Arms Race

With Gerrit Cole sidelined for what appears to be an extended period after elbow discomfort earlier this spring, the race for the AL Cy Young feels much more wide open, with several strong arms poised to contend for the prestigious award. Across the different sportsbooks, six pitchers are listed with odds below +1000 – Kevin Gausman, Corbin Burnes, Framber Valdez, Luis Castillo, Pablo Lopez and Tarik Skubal.

Gausman holds the lowest odds across the industry, ranging from +650 to +900, while Burnes is +800 on nearly every platform, making them basically co-favorites. Gausman finished within the top 10 in AL Cy Young Award voting in each of his two seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays, including a third-place finish in last year’s AL Cy Young race. Burnes was acquired by the Baltimore Orioles during the offseason after finishing within the top eight in NL Cy Young award voting each of the last four seasons –- he won the NL Cy Young in 2021.

Valdez, Castillo and Lopez each finished within the top 10 of AL Cy Young Award voting in 2023, and they currently sit in a second tier near the top of the odds board. Joining them is Skubal, who was outstanding after returning from Tommy John surgery in the second half of last season.

Of all these contenders, Corbin Burnes offers the most value at +800 as the only pitcher to have won the award previously. Burnes completed the 2023 campaign with the Milwaukee Brewers with a 10-8 record, a 3.39 ERA, an NL-best 1.069 WHIP and 200 strikeouts over 193.2 innings pitched. Now with the Orioles, Burnes receives a major park upgrade and improved supporting cast this year, increasing his win probability. Burnes’ strikeout rate dipped to 25.5% and his walk rate inflated to 8.4% in 2023, but if he can revert those numbers towards his career averages (30.5%; 7.2%) he should make a strong case for the AL Cy Young.

There are several mid-range options in the AL Cy Young race this year, but none may offer more value than the Seattle Mariners’ George Kirby. With odds ranging from +1200 to +2000, Kirby relies upon pinpoint accuracy to produce soft contact and minimize baserunners. In 2024, Kirby posted a 13-10 record with a 3.35 ERA and 1.038 WHIP. He racked up 172 strikeouts while allowing just 19 walks in 190.2 innings pitched to finish eighth in AL Cy Young voting. With a six-pitch repertoire and an improving Seattle Mariners roster behind him, Kirby could be an interesting target, especially at +2000.

Among the long shots and dark horses sits a pitcher that has shown Cy Young caliber stats as recently as 2022, but had a down year in 2023. Sitting as high as +10000 at some sportsbooks, Houston Astros pitcher Cristian Javier is one of my favorite bets for AL Cy Young on the board. In 2023, Javier struggled with his command giving up nearly double the amount of hits and earned runs as he did the year prior. At just 27 years old, Javier has shown signs of a bounce-back season that could land him closer to his 2022 totals, when he finished with a 2.54 ERA, 0.948 WHIP and an 11.7 K/9. If Javier can get back to his 2022 self, he could become the best pitcher on an Astros team that is currently favored to repeat as AL West Champions.