The Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays will do battle on FS1 late in the afternoon, and bettors looking for a solid bet to place have a pair of good-but-not-great pitchers on the mound to attack. Let’s dive into the betting odds for Saturday’s Brewers-Rays action to make our MLB predictions and identify the best bet — we’re fading Milwaukee’s starter, Eric Lauer.
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Best Brewers-Rays Bet & Prediction: Fade Eric Lauer
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Odds
Odds via BetMGM
Milwaukee Brewers: +170 | Tampa Bay Rays: -210
Over 8.5: -105 | Under 8.5: -115
The Milwaukee Brewers will trot our LHP Eric Lauer (4-4) and his 4.54 ERA today. The Tampa Bay Rays will start RHP Zach Eflin (5-1), who owns a respectable 3.38 ERA. A glance at the advanced stats makes Tampa Bay’s edge on the mound that much clearer: Eflin owns an xERA of 2.90, suggesting his actual numbers are worse than they should be; Lauer owns an xERA of 5.89, suggesting his actual stats are better. Eflin also has an edge in FiveThirtyEight’s rolling game score, with him (52.7) slotting in well ahead of Lauer (50.7).
Offense will also be an advantage for Tampa Bay as well. The Rays own an elite OPS of .931 against left-handed pitchers. They also rank a dominant third in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) at .348. In contrast, the Brewers own a solid OPS of .725 against right-handed pitchers and rank a far less dominant 22nd in xwOBA at .311, which ties them with underwhelming offensive teams like the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals. All of these factors combine to explain why the Rays are so heavily favored for today’s action.
This is a fantastic spot to fade Lauer and the Brewers. The beleaguered pitcher has allowed at least four runs in his last three starts with a 6.05 ERA. He last faced the Tampa Bay Rays in 2022 and surrendered three runs while recording a 6.85 ERA. The Brewers have lost three of Lauer’s seven starts by at least two runs. Worse, the Brewers are just 9-12 on the run line at home. They are 1-3 on the run line as a home underdog; in contrast, Tampa Bay is 11-7 as a road favorite.
Let’s head to BetMGM for this one. Both new and existing users can access a $10 bonus bet today, so if you haven’t signed up, now’s the perfect chance to get access to their already-excellent sign-up promo of $1,000 first-bet insurance and a free bet. Let’s parlay Tampa Bay to cover the run line with them to score at least four runs for odds of +125 via BetMGM.
Best Brewers-Rays MLB Bet: Rays -1.5/Rays Over 3.5 +125 at BetMGM
